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AGXX40 KNHC 290735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL BECOME ABSORBED LATER TODAY BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL RESIDE FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF NEAR VERA CRUZ TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON FRIDAY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST W OF 96W WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS JUST N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST THROUGH TODAY...THEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BREAK DOWN AS MATTHEW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS MAKING ITS TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LARGE SWELL PRODUCED BY MATTHEW WHILE OVER THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH STRONG TRADES WILL SUPPORT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TODAY. SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL VARY FROM LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 25 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF MATTHEW...TO 8 FT NEAR PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAX SEAS NEAR THE CENTER OF MATTHEW INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 30 FT AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MATTHEW WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS AND BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD EASTERN CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS STILL DIVERGE BY A FEW HUNDRED MILES BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL IMPACTING FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SAT THROUGH TUE TIME PERIOD.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL THEN RESIDE BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE EXTREME NW WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY THERE SATURDAY...THEN DISSIPATING THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACROSS THE SE ZONES EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW TODAY. THESE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH NO EFFECTS FROM MATTHEW ON THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A BRIEF WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD JOG FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES AS MOST MODELS EVENTUALLY TAKE MATTHEW NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA...THEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. WITH CURRENT 5 DAY FORECASTS FROM NHC ADVISORIES TAKING THE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CUBA...POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE OFFSHORES...VOBRA...AND NAVTEX OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. HURRICANE WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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