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000
AGXX40 KNHC 210749
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
249 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails across the area with a ridge extending
from the Straits of Florida to the central Texas coast. Latest
satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN
data depict gentle to moderate southerly return flow across the
basin, except just north of the Yucatan Peninsula where winds are
fresh to strong. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range east of 85W and in
the Bay of Campeche, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

A strong cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf waters from the
northwest late tonight into early Sunday, quickly reaching from
southeast Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, and
from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday
evening. A band of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front. This front will bring a
significant increase in winds and seas across the Gulf waters.
Strong to gale force winds are possible behind the front Sunday
through Monday across the northern and central Gulf, possibly
spilling into the southeast Gulf. A large area of seas building
up to 16-20 ft is expected behind the front.

Conditions will gradually improve from west to east Monday night
through Tuesday night as high pressure builds in the wake of the
front. The high will shift to over the northern Yucatan
Peninsula by Tuesday morning, then to over south Florida by
Wednesday morning, with return flow setting up across the basin
by the middle of the upcoming week.

The next cold front may enter the northwest Gulf Wednesday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. Latest
satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN
data depict a very small area of fresh to locally strong winds
just offshore of the northwest coast of Colombia, fresh to strong
southeast winds just northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, and
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
off the coast of Colombia and northeast of the Gulf of Honduras,
3-5 ft elsewhere over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over
the remainder of the Caribbean waters, and 4-5 ft over the
tropical north Atlantic waters.

The area of high pressure will weaken over the next couple of
days, which will bring a decrease in trades across the
Caribbean. Southeast to south winds are expected to increase
across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is
currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the northwest
Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by strong winds and building
seas. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to the
eastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night, with strong southwest
winds expected near the Windward Passage just ahead of the front.
The portion of the front extending over the Caribbean will wash
out through the middle of the week.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft to continue through the
forecast period.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The tail end of a cold front extends across the southeast
portion of the forecast area with high pressure located over the
central Bahamas. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along
with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin around the high. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft range east of the bahamas, except 3-5 ft north of 27N
west of 77W, and 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas.

High pressure over the central Bahamas will shift east this
weekend as a strong cold front approaches the western portion of
the area. Southerly winds will increase to 20-30 kt across the
northwest part of the forecast area by early Sunday ahead of the
cold front, increasing to gale force Sunday evening. The cold
front will move off the southeast coast of the United States
Sunday night, with strong to gale force winds spreading eastward
both ahead of and behind the front. Seas will build to 15-18 ft
across a large portion of the forecast waters through the early
part of the upcoming week.

The front will finally weaken and move east of 65W Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, with high pressure moving in from the
southern Gulf of Mexico to south Florida by early Wednesday, then
to east of the Bahamas Wednesday night. Conditions will greatly
improve from west to east as the high builds in the wake of the
front.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
Gale Warning Sun night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
Gale Warning Sun night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.

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