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AGXX40 KNHC 231829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED PER SURFACE DATA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO A LINE FROM 27N82W TO 26N90W TO 20N96W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND SHIFT SE OF THE AREA LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SE WATERS AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER ON FRI AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRES NEAR 22.5N87W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW CENTER COVERING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 83W-86W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE NE INTO THE SW N ATLC BY FRI MORNING...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SE OF AREA.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE W CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W/42W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...REACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED E OF 75W PER THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT ACCORDING TO AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22.5N87W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SINK SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE FRI...BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT...AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 23N81W TO 22N83W TO 16N87W BY SAT MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE FRI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION IF IT DOES NOT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE DATA AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NW OF THE FRONT...4-5 FT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING FROM 31N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. A LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE SAT AND SUN...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT NIGHT AND FROM 30N60W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRES LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE FORCE WINDS REACH 10-20 PERCENT ON SAT BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES ONLY SHOW A 5 PERCENT. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM UNTIL GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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