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AGXX40 KNHC 221715
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front and low pressure along the Texas coast supports thunderstorms within 120 nm of the Texas coast. This thunderstorm activity will continue through the night while shifting east as the low tracks northeast, just inland over Louisiana. Weak high pressure will remain over the rest of the Gulf supporting moderate winds and generally fair weather through Tuesday. The only other exception will be a thermal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula late this afternoon and moving westward over the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight. This trough will support strong easterly winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche after sunset tonight, until just before sunrise Tuesday.

A late season cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf early Wednesday morning, crossing the Gulf Wednesday through Thursday, before stalling across the Florida Straits late Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of this front. Fresh to strong winds are expected to develop east of the front over the northeastern Gulf Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will then build across the eastern Gulf late this week.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough will continue to cross central America, reaching portions of the southwest Caribbean supporting showers and thunderstorms the next few days. A westward moving tropical wave will cross the central Caribbean Tuesday, and the western Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. The high will slide east and strengthen through the middle of the week, causing the areal coverage of the stronger winds to expand northward over the central Caribbean.

Across the tropical Atlantic waters, the combination of 15 to 20 kt trades and northeast swell will support 7 to 8 ft seas over these waters through Tuesday. A tropical wave will reach these waters late this week.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will slide east through Tuesday and become centered over the central Atlantic as it merges with a broader area of high pressure to the north. A cold front will then approach the area from the west on Wednesday. This transition will result in a gradual increase in southerly winds offshore Florida the next two days, with winds reaching 20 to 30 kt by Wednesday afternoon with seas building to 10 ft over the waters east of north Florida. The cold front will reach the waters east of northern Florida on Thursday, then from 31N73W to south Florida by Friday morning. The front will then begin to weaken over the western Atlantic by Saturday. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and just east of the front Wednesday night through Thursday.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.

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