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AGXX40 KNHC 301808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE REGION. RECENTLY...AN ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF LIKELY DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH LOCATED INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF TEXAS IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT A LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS POSSIBLE LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W WILL MOVE W OF AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE THE 1502 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY N OF 19N W OF 83W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND AND WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 7-8 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY OF SUN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 22N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE SE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE N WATERS...BUT PARTICULARLY NEAR 27N AND JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. THE LATTER DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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