Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 191537
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1137 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET ON THE SE SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. THESE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH MON. THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM MOBILE BAY TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MON MORNING AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ON TUE BEFORE THE WESTERN HALF STALLS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE FROM FAR SW FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE WED. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ANY POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT ENDS FRI NIGHT. THE GFS AND NWPS FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THESE WINDS BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N UNDER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SIMILARLY...A FRESH TO STRONG E-SE BREEZE IS EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE AREA SEEING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SHOULD SHRINK AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE DRIVING RIDGING BECOMES WEAKER. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...INCREASING THE COMBINED SEAS 7-10 FT TONIGHT. THE EC WAVE COMPARES WELL WITH THE 1215 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING 8-9 FT SEAS FROM GUADELOUPE TO NEAR 22N59W WHILE THE MWW3 IS 2 FT TOO LOW AND THE NWPS IS ABOUT 3 FT TOO LOW. ATLC SWELL IN THE NWPS IS STILL CATCHING UP FROM A COLD START THAT WAS PERFORMED YESTERDAY. WITH THE ECMWF PREFERRED FOR THE WINDS N OF THE AREA AND PERFORMING BEST INITIALLY...THE EC WAVE WAS USED FOR SEAS IN THE ATLC. THE NWPS LOOKS REASONABLE IN THE CLOSED CARIBBEAN BASIN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA THAT DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH E WATERS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE EC ENS AND GEFS MEANS. THE GFS THEN BUILDS STRONGER RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF LINES UP BETTER WITH THE SLOWER ENS MEANS WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO N WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE ECMWF LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE IN THE ATLC. AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE EC WAVE IS COMPARING BEST TO OBSERVATIONS WITH THE NE SWELL OVER E WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FRI...WITH SEAS ONLY EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA IN SWELL. SINCE THE NWPS IS STILL CATCHING UP ON THE SWELL FROM A COLD START YESTERDAY...THE EC WAVE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE FORECAST.



$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home