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AGXX40 KNHC 050626
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
126 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR W OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE NE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND REACH FROM NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN WATERS TODAY AND WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 19 FT OVER THE SW WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...EXCEPT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-14 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...7-9 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA AND MAINTAIN THESE WINDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE RUNNING ALONG 28N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 2-4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND E OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THU INTO FRI NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
.AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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