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AGXX40 KNHC 221845
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N89W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THOUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON THE WINDS OR SEAS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY N OF PUERTO RICO DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA N OF THE AREA INHIBITS NE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PASSAGE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS BEEN DROPPED AS THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATE WINDS PEAKING NEAR 30 KT. AS OF FRI AFTERNOON...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH SUN MORNING...TRACKING THE FEATURE N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS. THAT IS WHERE THERE IS A DIVERGENCE ON THE MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF RECURVE THE SYSTEM...SHIFTING THE LOW NORTHWARD ONCE IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THEN NNE AFTERWARDS. THE GFS IS EASTWARD OF THE ECMWF WITH THE LATEST TRACK...THOUGH BOTH MODELS SHIFT THE LOW N OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET BOTH TAKE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE DISREGARDED IN THE LATEST NHC/WPC COORDINATED FORECAST POINTS WHICH FAVORS THE TRACK OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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