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AGXX40 KNHC 291715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE MORNING. THE STRONGEST EVENT IS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.

OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS MAINLY THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL STRAITS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS WITH LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OR WIND AND WAVES. THIS WAVE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 10-16N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS SPREADING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS ON SAT...AND SHIFTING WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N23W ALONG A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC. THE LOW HAS A GOOD CHANGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AN EMBEDDED SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 11 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE AREA NEAR 11.5N75.5W.

STRONG E WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND A RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 25N71W. AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 22N67W HAS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IN BETWEEN THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 27N69W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO FT PIERCE FL ON SAT. THE GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N WITH FRESH-STRONG E WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63-75W BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG FLOW ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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