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AGXX40 KNHC 061819
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
219 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WIND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED ON A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS. DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

UNDER THIS PATTERN...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY A THERMAL TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE NE GULF AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WIND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN THAT AREA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRED AT 1800 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 30N AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG 86W HAS MOVED INLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 63W/64W WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY...MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED. MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXES PER SCATTEROMETER DATA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WIND. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS...EXCEPT S OF 22N WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDING ALSO THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS IT SHIFTS FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 30N76W WED THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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