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AGXX40 KNHC 221903
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A STALLING COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT REACHING NEAR 4 FT IN THE REGION OF STRONG WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HELPING TO DEVELOP FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST EACH NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE WARNING FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRESHENING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. AREA.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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