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AGXX40 KNHC 291849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT USED TAFB NWPS OUTPUT FOR WAVEHEIGHTS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF NEAR 23.6N 84.3W AS OF 15Z WITH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 23.9N 85.3W THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH NEAR 24.4N 86.4W TUE MORNING...NEAR NEAR 25.0N 87.0W TUE EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO TURN N AND NE AND INTENSIFY TO 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT AS IT REACHES NEAR 26.1N 86.7W EARLY WED. NUMEROUS SQUALLS TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL N AND NW INTO THE ERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES NEAR 28.6N 83.8W EARLY ON THU...AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE WARNING GASTON NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS GASTON MOVES N AND RECURVES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE PRESENT AREA OF STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NW PORTION.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS.OT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF 31N AS IT MOVES NW THEN N EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS NRN FL LATE THU INTO FRI. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS E OF NE FL THU THROUGH MUCH OF FRI WITH STRONG SLY WINDS ACROSS THOSE WATERS... AND COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT OUTSIDE THE EXPECTED T.S. FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF ZONE AMZ111 LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ 115 FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE. WINDS DIMINISH IN ZONE AMZ111 FRI NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO WED.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO WED.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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