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AGXX40 KNHC 010722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 0000 UTC FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N90W TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 27N91W. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW-W WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY N OF 27N E OF 87W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NE GULF...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO ITS S. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT A FRESH BREEZE BEGINNING MON MORNING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE N.

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE IN THE NE GULF BY LATE SUN.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXPAND EASTWARD MON THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12-13 FT BY SUN MORNING. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT MAINLY BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 80W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W TODAY...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST ZONES AMZ111 AND AMZ113 THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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