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AGXX40 KNHC 240754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
354 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AS A 1015 MB IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N84W AT 06 UTC. LATEST BUOY AND CMAN REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AN ASCAT PASS CLEARLY CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS. THE REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SE FETCH BUILDING SEAS THERE TO 5 TO 7 FT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD WEAK TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NE W OF 84W. THE 0320 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE WINDS AS WELL. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND ALSO RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE S OF 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 2 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE BROAD TROUGHING N OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY FRI BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND FRESHEN WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 8 FT BY LATE FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST WITH THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH MON NIGHT.

WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY
...AND ARE NOW OBSERVED TO BE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. SEAS AS NOTED IN THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND PREVIOUS ALTIMETER PASSES ARE IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN E TO SE SWELL N OF 14N...
...AND 6 TO 8 FT S OF 14N IN A PREVIOUS NE SWELL MIXING WITH A SE SWELL. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NW TO N SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS REACHING NEAR 9 FT. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 6 FT SUN...AND TO 5 TO 6 FT MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRES IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1015 MB HIGH CENTER ANALYZED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA N OF ABOUT 26N E OF 71W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS...THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SENT ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. AT 06 UTC THIS MORNING THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N67W TO 30N71W AND TO N OF THE AREA AT 31N75W. A WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO 26N70W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS TODAY BEFORE MOVING E OF THE BASIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FRI...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT. SEAS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT DURING SAT AS THE NW SWELLS SHIFT E OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF ABOUT 29N SUN...AND TO E OF 65W ON MON. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE IN RELATION TO WINDS...AND ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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