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AGXX40 KNHC 300719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
319 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

N OF 22N...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR SE LOUISIANA AT 29N89W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE AND WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF. S OF 22N...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE W-NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. ACROSS THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER A RELATIVELY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE BASIN AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 7-10 FT BY FRI.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH UPSTREAM TRADES NE OF THE AREA INCREASING DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE REMAINS N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR CHARLESTON. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TAKE AN INCREASING MOTION OFF TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N71W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF 65W.

BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK MAINTAINING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. NE-E SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SE WATERS ACROSS AMZ127 BUILDING TO 7-8 FT LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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