Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 231703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
103 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DECAYING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE L PANHANDLE ACROSS THE MS DELTA TO NE TX...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY THU. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE SE TX COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION FROM TAMPA BAY FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND TONIGHT...THEN MEANDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THE RIDGE DURING EACH AFTERNOON AS A N-S ORIENTATED HEAT TROUGH FORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU AND THU NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT.

NOTICED VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N TILL THU NIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10-15 KT OFFSHORE THE SE TX COAST...THEN REPEAT AGAIN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTING A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU. OTHERWISE EXPECTING NE-E 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL EDITS NEAR THE DECAYING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MED CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ACCOMPANIED BY 30 KT WINDS IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TODAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU AS AN OPEN TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE ON THU NIGHT WELL S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EACH EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N ON SUN EVENING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 29N55W TO CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG 31N ON THU NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES BETWEEN 22N AND THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT EASTERLY TRADES AT 15-20 KT S OF 22N THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home