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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA PORTION

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST...EXCEPT ADDED THE 00 ECMWF INTO THE BEGINNING TUE. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LAST NIGHT TO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG IT. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE E WINDS S OF 26N AND E OF 86W. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM 0326 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED THESE WINDS AS WELL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN SECTION...AND THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS ARE 2 FT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEEDS AND SEAS TO LOWER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING LOW PRES FROM THIS WAVE...AND AGGRESSIVELY SPINNING IT UP WHILE TAKING IT NEWD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE FAR SE GULF WED. FOR NOW WILL DISCOUNT THAT SOLN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY THERE...AND BLEND WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MORE REASONABLE SOLN FROM THE LATEST ECMWF INTO THE NDFD GRIDS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A TROUGH FEATURE INSTEAD OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. IN ANY EVENT...LOOKING AT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING TUE...AND WITH THIS PORTION OF THE GULF EXPECTED TO BE UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG SLY JET EXPECT ADDED INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES TO SET THE STAGE FOR AND INCREASE OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS USED FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND WED.

THE BROAD TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY MORNING...AND AS OF 06 UTC IT IS ANALYZED ALONG 68W/69W S OF 18N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE NE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA S OF 16N...WHILE GENERALLY GENTLE E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. THE 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLC. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN...3-5 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 77W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 77W PER BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...PEAK SEA HEIGHTS ARE DUE TO NE SWELLS WITH SEAS NOW IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT S OF 17N...AND LOWER SEAS OF 5-7 FT N OF 17N.

THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA AS THE WAVE ADVANCE WESTWARD...AND ATLC HIGH HIGH PRES BUILDS SW TOWARDS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. THE TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LARGE FETCH OF E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY...AND TO 9 FT IN NE SWELLS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO 6-8 FT TUE NIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO E CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE HAS SET A VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS ALSO STREAMING ENE TOWARDS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. AS MENTIONED ABOVER UNDER GULF OF MEXICO...THE LATEST GFS SPINS UP A LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE...AND LIFTS IT NNE TOWARDS NW CUBA ON WED. WILL OPT FOR THE ECWMF SOLN FOR TIME BEING FOR TUE AND WED AS ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W/68W MAY BE PART OF THE INGREDIENTS THAT SETS UP THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER...THINKING MORE LIKE THAT RELATED TO A TROUGH FOR NOW...IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS SCENARIO MAY CHANGE WITH LOW PRES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THOSE TIMES. NDFD GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH THE 00 UTC MWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N66W SW TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW AT 26N69W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N71W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO ITS N...WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP... BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE NE-E WINDS W OF THE TROUGH...AND GENTLE E-SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO REVEALED N THE 0144-0146W UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES EXHIBIT SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT N OF 30N E OF 72W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NW WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRES PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE IT IS NOT PRESENTLY FOUND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS OVER THE AREA AND RATHER LOW SEA STATE EXCEPT FOR NE SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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