Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 230650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH SUN NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 03Z OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CARRIES A CLOSED LOW INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU WHILE ALL OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE LATER TODAY. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM PASSES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS SEEMED AS GOOD AS ANY SOLUTION TO ADJUST THE GRIDS...BUT HEAVY EDITING WAS REQUIRED TO BOTH THE WINDS AND WAVES TO MATCH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ONE LAST TIME THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF 30 KT THU-SUN. THE 00Z GFS NOW CARRIES ONE BARB ON GALE FORCE WINDS THU MORNING HERE...BUT IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. WILL NOT BITE ON EXTENDING THE GALE WARNING OFF COLOMBIA INTO THU. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA THU THROUGH SUN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0132 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE HERE.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THU. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRONG NAVGEM...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE REMNANTS INTO THE SW N ATLC IN MANY OF THE MODELS AFTER THE BROADER SYSTEM MOVES PAST PUERTO RICO. CHOSE TO KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO THE GFS SINCE IT WAS USED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN.



$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home