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AGXX40 KNHC 251748
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
148 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT SMOKE INTO THE SW GULF FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES OVER MEXICO. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL HELP CLEAR THE SMOKE OUT THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY BUT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE GULF WATERS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND GETS PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A SECOND FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TUE AND WED BEFORE SHIFTING SE OF THE GULF WED.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TI FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NE SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAILING. NOCTURNAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST OF THE US SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AFFECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N65W TO 24N69W. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N70W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...2-3 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 1 FT OR LESS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...AND E OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN. THIS WILL ENABLE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST OF THE US TOMORROW. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE GALE WINDS IT WAS DEPICTING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HAS FINALLY COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN THAT RESPECT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL RUN TO RUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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