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AGXX40 KNHC 010638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
138 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRING WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE SW WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE SE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE SW WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL GULF WATERS BY TUE. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD ENABLING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW WATERS MIDWEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 11-15 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...8-11 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...6-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 7-10 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK N OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THESE AREAS WED AND THU. NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N65W TO S FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS E OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE BAHAMAS...6-8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF THE FRONT...AND 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MON BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA BY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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