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AGXX40 KNHC 220728
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
328 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A thermal trough will develop each evening over the NW Yucatan Peninsula, move W-NW across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours and dissipate over the SW Gulf waters by late each morning. Expect the trough to be accompanied by a moderate to locally fresh NE-E-SE wind shift and brief seas of 3 to 4 ft. Otherwise, weak high pressure will continue over the region through the period providing for a relatively light gradient that will support light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft seas through Tuesday.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Major Hurricane Maria was centered about 85 nm N of Puerto Plata Dominican Republic as of 2 AM EDT, moving NW or 320 degrees at 7 kt with maximum sustained winds of 110 kt gust to 135 kt. A large feeder band extends from its eastern semicircle SW to just across the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic to within 60 nm SE of that same coast. Scattered to numerous squalls and thunderstorms are noted N of 16N and between 65W and 72W. The 0239Z Ascat pass highlighted an area of 20 to 25 kt winds along and within 90 nm of the SE coast of the Dominican Republic. However, higher winds can be expected with the squalls and thunderstorms. With the current trend of Maria's motion not showing signs of speeding up, expect for hazardous weather conditions associated with the feeder band to persist into tonight. Mainly fresh SE flow over the remainder of the eastern Caribbean will gradually diminish to the moderate range with a few pockets of fresh winds. Elsewhere across the area, a light gradient is supporting gentle winds. Once Maria lifts far enough to the N as during the weekend as projected in the latest NHC forecast, central Atlantic high pressure will then build southwestward towards the eastern Caribbean. The resultant pressure gradient will bring a return of moderate to locally E to SE fresh trades over much the eastern Caribbean beginning on Sunday evening. Pockets of locally strong winds are expected over the S central Caribbean Monday night into Tuesday and again on Tuesday night, with combined wave heights to around 7 ft.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Major Hurricane Maria was centered about 40 nm ESE of Grand Turk Island or about 85 nm N of Puerto Plata Dominican Republic as of 2 AM EDT, moving NW or 320 degrees at 7 kt with maximum sustained winds of 110 kt gust to 135 kt. Maria will continue to track NW through this morning, then more towards the NNW later today and on Saturday in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This track keeps the center of Maria E of the central and northern Bahamas. Marine interests throughout the region should continue monitoring the latest bulletins issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Maria.

Southerly swell associated with Maria in excess of 8 ft will mix with lingering northerly swell associated with Jose over the waters north of 28N and E of 78W through this morning, with the southerly swell ahead of Maria becoming dominant through early next week as Maria continues N of the area. In its wake, a trough will extend from the general vicinity of the N central forecast waters SW to near the SE Bahamas, with unsettled weather expected with and near the trough.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Hurricane Warning Sat.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Sat.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Fri night.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Hurricane Warning tonight into Sat.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Hurricane Warning tonight into Fri. Tropical Storm Warning Fri night into Sat.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Hurricane Warning tonight into Fri. Tropical Storm Warning Fri night.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Hurricane Warning tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Fri.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.

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