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AGXX40 KNHC 010706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS STARTING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW IS FORMING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...UNTIL A TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTUALLY FORMS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SE WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT IN THE AREA N OF THE LOW PRES COVERING MUCH OF THE W CENTRAL GULF FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 90W FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DURATION OF THE STRONG SE FLOW OVER A 350 NM FETCH SEAS TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN NE MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOW PRES AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER VERACRUZ BY EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0245 UTC INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT SE WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS TO NORTHERN BELIZE. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE W OF 85W. THE STRONG SE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES W OF THE AREA ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH EASTERLY WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALSO INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA WITH 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE IN PART LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO DRAINAGE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THIS COASTLINE...BUT ARE ALSO INFLUENCED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE STILL LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY NE OF THE SE BAHAMAS.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT NIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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