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AGXX40 KNHC 160633
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...NWPS NOT AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW AND W CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N93W TO 23N97W MOVING W. ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE NEAR THE AXIS WHILE BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ONLY SHOW 5-10 KT WINDS AT BEST NEAR THIS FEATURE. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL GULF 27N88W WILL DRIFT TO THE S REACHING 25N87W THU AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE N GULF NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SLOWLY SINKS S. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SE GULF THU NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN-WIDE...AND PRIMARILY 1-3 FT SEAS...OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...NWPS NOT AVAILABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MEETING A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS E OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT GENTLE IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE FRESH WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WED...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE PASSAGE... OTHERWISE ONLY A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT IS EXPECTED. SEAS AT 4-7 FT ARE PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE EDOUARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-7 FT THROUGH SAT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...NWPS NOT AVAILABLE. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 29N76W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE TO ANOTHER HIGH CENTER JUST SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW GENTLE WINDS N OF 27N...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 71W...INCREASINGLY HIGHER SEAS FROM W TO E...UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W...DUE TO SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE S OF 27N EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS W OF 70W...AND 6-10 FT E OF 70W. THE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD WILL SUBSIDE BY 24 HOURS.

THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SINK S-SE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIP INTO THE NW WATERS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION ON WED. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E-SE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD INTO SAT. WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT... HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE N AND NOW KEEPS THE LOW ALONG OR N OF 31N. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 5-7 FT... OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BASIN-WIDE THROUGH SAT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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