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AGXX40 KNHC 020719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
319 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 0000 UTC FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N90W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW-W WINDS SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY N OF 27N E OF 85W. A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1009 MB LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 31N85W WILL MOVE SE REACHING A POSITION NEAR 30N83W TONIGHT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE RIDGE TO ITS S WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N INTO THE N GULF STATES BY LATE MON AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF BY MON AND SHIFT N THROUGH WED.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING AND THEN MON MORNING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN EXPAND EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. IN ADDITION...EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE N OF AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON WED.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE NW WATERS ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE WED.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE WINDS THERE BY MON NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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