Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 031851
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE W GULF NEAR 21N95W TO 27N96W TO 29N91W...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE W GULF. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE GULF.

THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE ATLC THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE FILLS WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SUPPORTING GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE E TO SE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE AND SHIFT WNW EACH NIGHT. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...WHICH CUTS OFF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SHIFTS SLOWLY SE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRIDAY. INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...ARE MOVING SE FROM THE GA COAST WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT LOW CENTER. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHS AND CONVECTION WILL DRIFT SW THEN S NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES SE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 65W ON FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SAT BEFORE WEAKENING. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD SUN AND MON...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS WILL OCCUR NW OF THE LOW OFFSHORE OF FL THROUGH SUN. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL OCCUR S OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home