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AGXX40 KNHC 250723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
223 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY HAS CLEARED THE BASIN WHILE SEAS OF 8-9 FT LINGER IN THE SE PORTION. 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED IN THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N96W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE E TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS E OF 87W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS W OF 87W. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE NW GULF AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER SEAS LINGERING IN THE SE PORTION.

THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE NE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH TODAY WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE W-NW WINDS BEHIND IT IN THE N CENTRAL AND E GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...QUICKLY SHIFTING SE OF THE BASIN MON AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT E OF 90W LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF E OF 90W MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER FRONT OR REINFORCING TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH BRIEF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. THAT FEATURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT BY WED MORNING. HIGH PRES OVER SE GEORGIA WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN BY WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT SEAS.

A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY THU MORNING...SLOWLY SHIFTING E THROUGH THU NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY 8-10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AS THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 11-12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATE FRESH N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIKELY STRONG IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N MON NIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL SET UP ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY WED NIGHT. THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKED BY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 29N70W TO 27N73W TO 23N79W. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED WITH STILL ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 27N67W THEN STATIONARY TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE NW PORTION TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS AHEAD OF IT JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO 28N77W TO 26N80W MON AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY THEN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N67W TO 28N68W TO 20N74W BY LATE MON NIGHT. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL COVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 22N AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18-20 FT ALONG 31N BY LATE MON NIGHT. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BY TUE EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

THESE ACTIVE CONDITIONS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE U.S. THE LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SE TO NEAR 28N70W BY FRI MORNING AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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