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AGXX40 KNHC 200735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N94W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SAME LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT BASED ON BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TODAY...THEN WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BY LATE MON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF. WINDS WILL THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS ZONE GMZ017 BY TUE EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE GFS PROBABILITIES NOW REACH 40 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES TUE EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT... FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT BY WED MORNING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 MON INTO TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO NE FLORIDA ON SUN MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATES THE WATERS S OF 27N DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF 22N W OF 70W. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTH WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY WED MORNING ACROSS ZONE AMZ111...AND MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-12 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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