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AGXX40 KNHC 041800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLOW-MOVING LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COVERING MOST OF THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY 15-20 KT. MAX SEAS REPORTED TODAY ARE 5-6 FT...AND AGREE WITH AVAILABLE ALTIMETER DATA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS TO EXIT REGION AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E INTO NE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP W OF 90W. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS E AND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC. MAX SEAS ARE 6 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIB AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK E AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THU AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI...FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA SAT THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA SUN. A N-S TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SAT ALONG 74W/75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIB... WITH NLY FLOW TO THE W AND SE FLOW TO THE E...THE RIDGING WILL FLATTEN THE LLVL FLOW PATTERN SUN-MON. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SCENARIO FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON...BUT WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY ONLY TO REACH 6 FT W OF FRONT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND WW3 MODELS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SLOW-MOVING LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS COVER MOST OF THE FLA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING AND EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO WESTERN CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI...AND FROM 31N66W TO HAITI SAT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 25N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN. STRONG SW WINDS AND WIDESPREAD STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER REGARDING S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND CONSENSUS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ZONE AMZ113 THU BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. 00Z EC INDICATES MESO LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR 28N78W. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR LINES OF CNVTN AHEAD OF FRONT...MAKING PRECISE FRONTAL POSITIONS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. IN ADDITION...DIGGING UPPER LOW INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU THROUGH FRI WILL CAUSE FRONT TO STALL OR SLOW AND BECOME MORE N-S ALIGNED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT CONTINUES SE. W-NW WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WILL BUILD ACROSS NW PORTION THU NIGHT BEHIND SECONDARY BOUNDARY.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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