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AGXX40 KNHC 180622
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
222 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

1015 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 28N87W WITH THE PARENT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NE GULF COASTLINE. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO SW FLORIDA. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...WHILE E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE E CENTRAL OR SE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NW-N INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DIFFERING FROM THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE REMNANTS OF FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 6 FT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THUS THE STRENGTH AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL...HIGHEST IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME HARDER TO TRACK AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. TRADES AT 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS...EXCEPT TO 7 FT N OF 15N IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TODAY.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N65W TO JUST N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE THE PARENT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY DRIER AIR/LOWERING DEWPOINTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 29N BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY 5-15 KT WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW AS EITHER A REMNANT TROUGH OR WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN STALL FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES NOW EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG IT E OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SAT. THE LOW WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 31N77W LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS AND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW MANAGES TO DEVELOP... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY SETUP BOTH ON THE SE AND BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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