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AGXX40 KNHC 241810
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LAST NIGHT HAS DISSIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE GULF FROM THE SE UNITED STATES AND SW N ATLANTIC WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN E FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WEST GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY FRI.

THE DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FORMING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN MOVE OVER THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IS EXPECTED JUST N AND W OF THE YUCATAN COAST TODAY AND WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGHS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SW GULF THU THROUGH SUN.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

USED BUOY 42058 TO INITIALIZE WINDS AND SEAS N OF COLOMBIA. THE 1150Z OBSERVATION FROM THE BUOY SHOWED W WINDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8.5 FT. BUOY 42059 N OF VENEZUELA HAD ESE WINDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS OF 8.5 FEET AT 1150Z.

AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY CAUSED A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WIND MAXIMUM OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THU NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N ATLANTIC WEAKENS THE HIGH. A MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FRI THROUGH SUN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 55W. THIS FEATURE IS ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THU...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS SITUATED FARTHER E NEAR 33W.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST GFS FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WAVES. FOR THU THROUGH SAT MANUALLY ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS E OF BAHAMAS TO BROADEN THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N42W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N67W. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL INITIAL 200 MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING FROM E OF FLORIDA TO S OF CUBA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHWARD TO E OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N66E.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM N OF CUBA TO N OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN MOVE IT SLOWLY NW. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF ANY LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY A TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT. IN ANY CASE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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