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AGXX40 KNHC 020821
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
421 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA PERSISTS FROM BIG BEND REGION SW TO VICINITY OF 27.5N87W THIS MORNING WITH RECENT RADAR SUGGESTING LLVL VORT ON NE END OF TROUGH SHIFTING NE AND INLAND ACROSS FL. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT LLVL VORT HERE WILL SHIFT NE THEN E ACROSS N FL AND INTO ATLC WATERS OF N FL AND SE GA NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH TROUGH GRADUALLY WASHING OUT TONIGHT AND ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT SHIFTING SLOWLY E ACROSS TEXAS AND W GULF WATERS WITH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LA COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES...BUT WITH NEW MORE ISOLATED CNVTN FIRING ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS WEAK MID LVL S/W SWINGS THROUGH BACK SIDE OF TROUGH. NRN PORTION OF A CARIB TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED WNW INTO THE YUCATAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY FOR ADDITIONAL CNVTV DEVELOPMENT E OF UPPER TROUGH. SFC HIGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO THU AS TROUGH DRIFTS NE AND DISSIPATES...AND WILL YIELD MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS SE AND W PORTIONS OF BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALLOW YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF W AND NW YUCATAN EACH OF NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EVENING SEAS BUILDING 4-5 FT AND SHIFTING WNW WITH TROUGH EACH NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS.

WEAK 1018 MB HIGH ACROSS SW N ATLC NEAR 29N69W PRODUCING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN THIS MORNING. RECENT ASCAT PASSES MISSED OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WATERS WITH WIND MAX WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT GENERALLY SHOWED 15-20 KT TRADES ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT AREA...AND BUOY 42058 DOWN TO 17 KT AND 6 FT ATTM. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB OVERNIGHT AND NOW ALONG ABOUT 73-74W...WITH N PORTION OF WAVE AND BEST MOISTURE FRACTURING OR SHEARING AWAY FROM WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS...AND INTERACTING WITH TUTT ALONG 20N IN THE ATLC FOR SCAT CVNTN ACROSS PUERTO RICO-VI REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ABOUT 84W AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERING EPAC WATERS...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEATHER BEHIND IT ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS. CENTRAL CARIB WAVE TO CONTINUE WWD AND BEGIN TO PRODUCE LLVL CONVERGENCE AND CNVTN ACROSS SW PORTIONS THU THROUGH FRI...WHILE N FRACTURED PORTION OF WAVE IMPACTS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND THEN HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THU. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY MILD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ATLC HIGH SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS AND YIELDS FRESH TRADES CONFINED S OF 14.5N ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRI AND THEN S OF 13.5N OVER THE WEEKEND. GULF OF MEXICO HIGH WILL INDUCE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR EVENING PULSING OF WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N689 IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT TRADES N OF HISPANIOLA...AND SOLID 20 KT ALONG N COASTAL WATERS THERE. REMNANTS OF ERIKA TROUGH IN NE GULF WILL SHIFT ENE ACROSS FL AND INTO NW WATERS THU-FRI THEN BE FORCED SE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY UPPER TROUGH SINKS S ACROSS NW ATLC WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SINKING TO ALONG 28N BY SUN. A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS/CONVERGENCE LINES CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD ALONG NE WATERS AND ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD TROUGHING CENTRAL ATLC. SFC HIGH TO ALSO BE FORCED SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BY DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING MOVING SSE ACROSS NW ATLC AND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT TO THE NW OF THE BROAD LOW SETTLING ALONG 28N MAY PRODUCE 15 KT OF NE FLOW ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND INTO NE FL COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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