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AGXX40 KNHC 280704
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
204 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF...EXCEPT THE FAR SE GULF WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR SE GULF...2-4 FT OVER THE NW GULF...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD MON ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TUE NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE WINDS W OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT...5-7 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN....AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND STRENGTHEN TRADES BY EARLY SUN.


...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO EASTERN CUBA. A SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WEST OF THE SECOND FRONT AS WELL AS S OF 25N W OF THE FIRST FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FIRST FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT W OF THE SECOND FRONT...6-7 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 4-6 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SECOND FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI NIGHT...THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT NIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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