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AGXX40 KNHC 270744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 87W...AND FRESH BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 6-10 FT SEAS E OF 90W. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N96W AT 1024 MB CONTROLS THE WESTERN GULF. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE W OF 90W ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 94W.

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN GULF. BY WED MORNING...HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE WATERS BY THU MORNING ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 27N THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF WATERS YET AGAIN SAT INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS SAT EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA TO SE NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THIS FEATURE REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 20N88W. OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TIGHT RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP ALONG INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THESE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THU ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE-E BY FRI MORNING.

NE-E WINDS ARE PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ONLY PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS FROM AROUND SUNRISE TODAY THROUGH WED... THEN WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS AND EXPAND TO MORE OFFSHORE WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PEAKING AT 30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS EVEN HINTS AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 06-12 UTC ON SUN WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE WED NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY LATE THU NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE NE PORTION THU THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SOME NW SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N64W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W...AND THE WESTERN FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO 22N79W. PLENTIFUL CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 24N WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF THE WESTERN FRONT TO 79W...WITH AN AREA OF S-SW GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N E OF THE WESTERN FRONT TO 62W. SEAS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING WITH THIS LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND WILL MAX OUT AROUND 20 FT NEAR 31N73W LATER THIS MORNING.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE FRONTS MERGE AND PUSH E OF 65W. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST TWO FRONTS AND WILL REACH FROM 31N63W TO 23N73W BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ONLY FRESH NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT BY THEN ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THAT HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SE REACHING 31N74W BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON...QUICKLY RACING EASTWARD AND EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 28N80W LATE FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT LIES DOWN ALONG 27N BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND IT...HOWEVER FRESH NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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