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AGXX40 KNHC 240620
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE N AND NW COASTS OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING.

A SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AGAIN ON THU WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS APPROACHES THE FL COAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 16N61W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY FLARING NEAR THE LOW HAS SO FAR LACKED PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS FAVOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW CONTINUES NW ACROSS THE LEEWARDS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WITH FRESH TRADES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW...WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.

STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PASS E OF THE AREA...BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 18N E OF 57W ON FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FIONA NEAR 27N67W WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 25-29N BETWEEN 65-71W THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE DISSIPATING.

A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA NEAR 16N61W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION...BUT CONDITIONS FAVOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW AND WAVE CONTINUE NW PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW...OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL CONTINUE NW THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHAIN THIS WEEK REACHING NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN...AND POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

THE W PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON WILL PASS THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W BEGINNING ON FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT AMZ115 ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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