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AGXX40 KNHC 050703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PRIMARILY S OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALIGNED ALONG 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SHIFTING THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER N AWAY FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPROMISED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AS IT MIGRATES W ACROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND EXIT THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND 12 EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WELL NE OF THE AREA WILL SEND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PINCHED OFF NEAR BERMUDA LATE MON WSW TUE THROUGH THU...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRAVELS TO NEAR 30N70W. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC. BOTH MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WITH THE AREA OF WIND SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE COAST MON THROUGH THU AS THE RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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