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AGXX40 KNHC 091759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SHIFTED SE OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH WATERS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT THE FAR SW GULF WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...4-7 FT OVER THE NW WATERS AND 3-6 FT OVER THE SW WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND...STALLING OVER THE NE GULF AND DISSIPATING BY SUN. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AMONG GLOBAL MODELS... THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONGER TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS W OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS W OF 65W...4-6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF 65W...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE...AND PERHAPS MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH A ROUND OF SHORTER PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL BY TONIGHT WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI WITH THE TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8 FT PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE SE WATERS WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N71W TO WESTERN CUBA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAILING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-17 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...7-8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT THU...THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY FRI. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW WATERS SAT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE WARNING TODAY.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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