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AGXX40 KNHC 230659
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
259 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE N CENTRAL TO NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ONLY 00Z MODEL THAT TAKES THE ATLC SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...INTO THE GULF IS THE NAVGEM. ITS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. AS EXPLAINED IN THE ATLC SECTION BELOW...THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SE BAHAMAS...THE IMPACT ON THE CARIBBEAN IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE BEEN DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS BEEN CUT OFF BY TROUGHING BUILDING N OF THE AREA. TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL TUE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE S. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO S CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND EXPAND NORTHWARD ON WED NIGHT. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE POSSIBLE ATLC TROPICAL CYCLONE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. EC WAVE/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TROUGHING N OF HISPANIOLA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT ASCAT PASSES FROM AROUND 02Z CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OPEN CIRCULATION. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PREFERRED NHC SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE EASTERLY/OFFSHORE THAN THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND NAVGEM. WILL BE USING THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS TRENDED MORE EASTERLY/OFFSHORE...TO ADJUST THE WIND GRIDS. THE NWPS AND EC WAVE WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE WAVES.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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