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AGXX40 KNHC 210955 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

CORRECTED CARIBBEAN SEA

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 ALONG WITH NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT E OF 89W...NE-E 10 KT WINDS BETWEEN 89W-92W AND SE 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 92W. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SHIP "ELXY2" LOCATED NEAR 21N92W REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS JUST A FEW HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CAPTURED THE OCCURRENCE OF SIMILAR AND COMMON NOCTURNAL WINDS JUST ALONG THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES REPORTED SIMILAR VALUES AS WELL AS A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE FAR NE GULF ON WED AND DISSIPATE. THE FRONT WILL LACK ADEQUATE FORCING...AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD. THIS HAS LOOSENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE TO E 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W-77W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...N-NE WINDS OF 10 KT ARE NOTED PER BUOY AND ISLAND REPORTS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT.

SEAS ARE IN THE THE 6-8 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO S OF 15N IN THE EASTERN PORTION. SEAS ARE 5- 7 FT N OF 15N IN THE EASTERN PORTION...AND 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN PORTION. A COUPLE OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES NOTED THESE VALUES ALONG WITH THOSE FROM THE BUOY REPORTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE ATLC RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL LOWER SOME OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A DIMINISHED SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE S OF ABOUT 14N E OF 60W. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN NE SWELLS MAINLY S OF 15N. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 6 OR 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OF 1009 MB JUST N OF THE AREA AT 32N73W EXTENDS S THROUGH 31N71W TO 26N72W TO EASTERN CUBA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO CENTRAL CUBA. A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N68W TO 25N71W. NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 25N.

LATEST BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE. FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 27N W OF 77W WHERE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXISTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. A POCKET OF FRESH SE TO S WINDS REMAINS TO THE E OF FRONT WITHIN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE SQUALL LINE WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING TO AROUND 9 FT. NW TO N WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND THE BAHAMAS...AND 4-6 FT N OF 25N E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

THE 1009 MB LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THROUGH WED WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SQUALL MOVING E OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. ON WED...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NW PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO TUE. THE AREA OF FRESH SE-S WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA EARLY ON TUE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND BE LOCATED JUST TO THE E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW AT 20 KT. HIGHER NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE JUST N OF THE AREA...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS...EXCEPT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION ON THU NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT DURING FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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