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AGXX40 KNHC 050825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SE OUT OF AREA THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM STRAITS JUST SE OF THE KEYS TO YUCATAN PENINSULA ALMOST TO CANCUN CONTINUING SW TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. I THINK OUR SFC MAPS HAVE HAD THE FRONT A BIT TOO FAR SE FOR ITS ENTIRE PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULFWITH 06Z POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO TRUE LOCATION. FRESH NWLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS NE PORTIONS GENERALLY E OF 87W PER OBS AND RECENT 03Z ASCAT PASSES... WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 6-7 FT. ELSEWHERE...1017 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED INTO NW PORTIONS AND OFFSHORE OF SE TEXAS WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E INTO NE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP W OF 90W. HIGH TO THEN SHIFT ENE ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA MON-TUE WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING AND SPREADING ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON 1029 MB HIGH IN CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING SW TO SE BAHAMAS ATTM BUT WEAKENING IN INFLUENCE AS COLD FRONT IS NOT MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE OF FRONT IS FOCUS FOR CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND SHIFTING E-SE S OF CUBA...AND TOWARDS THE SE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS. INDUCED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY FROM COLOMBIA NW TOWARD JAMAICA...RESULTING IN SE FLOW E OF TROUGH AND N TO NW FLOW W OF TROUGH AND FRONT. MODEST ZONE OF 20 KT SE TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS E OF 70W TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-6 FT. FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE AND REACH FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO NW GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING...FROM FAR ERN CUBA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA FRI EVENING...FROM NW HAITI TO COSTA RICA-PANAMA BORDER SAT EVENING...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO WRN PANAMA SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINLY 15-20 KT NLY FLOW BUILDING BEHIND FRONT ACROSS W PORTIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT IN NLY WINDSEA. WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA TO 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT BRIEFLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT ACROSS THESE SEMI PROTECTED WATERS. RIDGE ACROSS THE GULFMEX TO SHIFT E INTO SW N ATLC AND BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND CAUSE WINDS TO BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO TYPICAL ELY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN SUN AND MON. INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BEHIND DYING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN LEE OF CUBA SUN AND MON.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

SLOW-MOVING LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS SSW TO JUST OFFSHORE OF MIAMI AND THE FL KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS ATTM. ENERGETIC TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF AND SE U.S. AND DIGGING DEEP LAYERED LOW INDUCING WIDESPREAD CNVTN ALONG AND E OF FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS FRONT SHIFTS E-SE. SWLY WINDS 20-25 KT SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND OBS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM BAHAMAS TO 29-30N...WHILE NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS IN MID 20S BUILDING ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT FROM KEYS TO JAX AREA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AREA OF GALES TO DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OR SQUALL LINE E OF FRONT AND NE OF BAHAMAS...AND SHIFT NNE AND OUT OF AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE FORMING ALONG FRONT INVOF 30N ATTM AND WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT NW WATERS TODAY WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT ALONG AND JUST N OF 31N. SEAS AHEAD OF FRONT IN STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 9-11 FT THIS MORNING AND TO 10-13 FT NE WATERS BY MID AFTERNOON. FRONT TO REACH 31N71W TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING THEN TO 31N66W TO E COAST OF CUBA BY FRI EVENING...SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS AND REACH 27N65W TO NW HAITI SAT EVENING THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA SUN AS UPPER LOW AND SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE N ACROSS THE NW ATLC. SECONDARY SURGE AND FRONTAL TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND TRUE FRONT WITH A TERTIARY TROUGH ACROSS NW PORTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT FETCH EVER DEVELOPS BEHIND FRONT AND SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT N PORTIONS AFTER TONIGHT THEN 4-5 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS ESE FROM GULF INTO SW N ATLC THEN SHIFTS E.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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