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AGXX40 KNHC 290801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS USED CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS W OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE SE TEXAS COAST.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 25N. OVER THE SW GULF S OF21N AND E OF 93W WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET.

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE...THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT TYPICALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD W INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EACH EVENT WILL GENERALLY BE ATTENDED BY A PERIOD OF FRESH NE WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SEAS TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT. A MORE ROBUST EVENT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT TO EARLY SUN WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS USED CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL REACH FROM THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA TO S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT. THE GRADIENT PRODUCING THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN THE CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK ON MON AND TUE AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 22N ALONG 86W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LATE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE AND AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME FRESH TO STRONG LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS USED CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N76W OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. THE RIDGING IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N68W. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE INDUCED BY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE W OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK AND DISSIPATE DURING HE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EVIDENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR 29N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN S OF 24N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE N COASTS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL PULSE BRIEFLY TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS N OF HISPANIOLA COULD REACH 8 FT ON SAT NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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