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000
AGXX40 KNHC 161038
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
317 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from northern Florida to 23N93W to 18N94W. Scatterometer data at 0400 UTC showed gale force winds south of 20.5N west of the front. Seas are expected to be 9-14 ft west of the front this morning. Models suggest that broad low pressure developing along the boundary in the SW Gulf today, then move northward into the NW Gulf through tonight, with SE-S flow on the eastern side of the low increasing to fresh to strong. The low will then move inland over eastern Texas Sun morning, and linger into early next week.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A trough from western Cuba into Honduras will dissipate later today. Meanwhile, high pressure will build north of the region this weekend, and strengthen the gradient across the central Caribbean, where highest winds will reach minimal gale each night through Tue. Winds will diminish slightly to 25-30 kt during the day. Seas will build to 10-14 ft near the coast of Colombia.

The fresh to strong trades will expand in coverage this weekend through Mon night. These winds will then become more confined to the central Caribbean Tue through Wed night. Plumes of fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop to the lee of Cuba and through and near the Windward Passage beginning late Saturday night and diminish some on Tuesday and to 15-20 kt on Wed.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

An ASCAT pass at 0222 UTC showed mostly fresh W-SW winds N of 29N between 70W and 75W ahead of a cold front. The southern extent of this cold front will brush the northern waters today, followed by strong W-NW winds and seas of 8-10 ft on either side of it. These conditions are expected to be to the N of about 30N and E of 77W. Strong high pressure will build behind this front, with ridging settling along 28N through Tue, ushering in fairly tranquil marine conditions across the entire basin. Another cold front brushes the far northern waters Wed, preceded by strong SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft. Northerly winds behind the boundary will be mostly moderate, but this may trend upwards in future guidance.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning tonight into Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.

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