Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 311821
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXTENDS FROM BIG BEND REGION TO CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N87W. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED... REACHING ALONG 86W...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE WED. THE YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN TUE AND WED WITH ENHANCED WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT SHIFTING WWD EACH EVENING WITH TROUGH. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE N GULF WED TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS S HALF OF BASIN AND ALLOW FOR YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO SET UP EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 9 FT BASED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W REPORTS SEAS TO 7 FT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED AS HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF AREA...THEN WILL DIMINISH BY THU AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W WILL MOVE W AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CARIB THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE E CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIB WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIEWS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA LOCATED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1022 MB HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR 30N69W HAS DIMINISHED AND SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A GENTLE AND MODERATE BREEZE. SURFACE DATA FROM BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE S-SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home