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AGXX40 KNHC 291713
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
113 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS...REACHING MODERATE OVER THE NW GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH DAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE SW GULF AND DISSIPATING EARLY EACH MORNING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A BRIEF AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING AN INCREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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