Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 311730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

PRODUCT RELEASED EARLY FOR COMPUTER MAINTENANCE


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. 1022MB HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST IN MOST AREAS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN WHERE THE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...STALLING ALONG 26N BY LATE SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN STARTING LATE SAT.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PULSE OVERNIGHT OFF COLOMBIA...BUT OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 7 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 4 TO 6 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. PERSISTENT RIDGING CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TRADES WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH OVER MOST THE AREA THROUGH WED. RIDGING WILL INCREASE AGAIN N OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONY...ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW WITH PULSES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THU INTO FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT 22N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM 31N75W TO 30N78W WILL MOVE E OF 65W THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE WED...BEFORE STALLING ALONG 26N E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE THU AND BECOMING DIFFUSE FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST SAT...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home