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AGXX40 KNHC 050719
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
319 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE...WITH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF. THIS WEAK HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. TROUGHING WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF THIS WEEKEND FROM THE SE UNITED STATES.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RECENT ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AROUND 110 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS UP TO 11 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THU THROUGH SUN AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 87W WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 47W/48W WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. A WEAK LOW PRES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE NW WATERS AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS N OF 30N W OF 77W BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS LATE TODAY AND WILL PERSIST ON THU BEFORE MERGING BACK INTO THE WEAKENED RIDGE AXIS BY FRI.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE THE WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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