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AGXX40 KNHC 261800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF MON AND TUE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W EXTENDS FROM CUBA TO PANAMA. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS W OF 72W WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN CUBA AND PANAMA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. WINDS OVER GULF OF HONDURAS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT EACH NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KT TUE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING PAST WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN MORNING...MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AFTERNOON...THEN REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE. FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE WAVES BASED ON ECMWF AND GFS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN MODELS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE THROUGH SUN THEN SAG SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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