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AGXX40 KNHC 211934
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON THEN WITH ECMWF TUE AND WED. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING TUE.

STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA. THIS IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTING IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS INCREASING AS WELL...FLOWING INTO A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS LOW AND ITS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH COULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING STRONG NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY TUE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS ALONG WITH THE PARALLEL GFS AND UKMET INDICATE GALE ARE POSSIBLE FOR THAT TIME. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS ADVERTISING A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR VERACRUZ GALES ON TUE AS WELL. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF WHICH IS SHOWING 30 KT FOR THAT TIME...A LITTLE LESS THAN THE 00Z RUN. SINCE THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS READILY CONDUCIVE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ANOTHER RUN FROM INTRODUCING GALES TO THE SW GULF FOR TUE. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF FOR THE SW GULF AREA AT THE TIME TO DILUTE THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MON THEN WITH ECMWF TUE AND WED. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE STARTING TUE.

A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON...AN ARTIFACT OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE TO FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE TROUGH...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. FARTHER EAST...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPANDING TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY TO 8 TO 10 FT. MEANWHILE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. WAVE MODELS INDICATE A NEW ROUND OF NW TO N SWELL MIX WITH DECAYING REMNANTS OF THE TRADE SWELL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MAINTAIN 8 TO 9 FT SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED AND INTO NW CARIBBEAN WED...SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING NORTHERLY GALE WARNINGS BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW CARIBBEAN WED. OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS WEAKER ECMWF TO DILUTE STRONGER GFS OUTPUT. WILL RE- EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR WED IN UPCOMING FORECAST ISSUANCES.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO NW CUBA. A REINFORCING FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND THIS WILL MERGE WITH THE EXISTING FRONT AND SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE FOLLOWING STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 28N BY MON...LEAVING FRESH TRADES MAINLY S OF 24N THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE MON/EARLY TUE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...IMPACTING THE WATERS N OF THE NW BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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