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AGXX40 KNHC 301844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT USED TAFB NWPS OUTPUT FOR SEAS WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. AVERAGE E GULF...HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR 24.0N 87.2W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 30 MOVING W NW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTER...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E QUADRANT AND 60 NM ELSEWHERE OF THE CENTER WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE SE GULF WATERS...TO YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER PORTIONS OF WRN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 15 UTC ADVISORY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 24.5N 87.3W THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT...THEN REACH NEAR 25.4N 87.4W WED MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL TURN TO THE NE AND REACH NEAR 26.9N 86.2W WED EVENING. IT WILL ACCELERATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES NEAR 28.5N 84.5W EARLY THU WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN FL THU NIGHT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE SE GULF N AND NW INTO THE E GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NE AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE COVER MUCH OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINS GUSTY WINDS. A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE W-CNTRL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE PRESENT AREA OF STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SQUALLS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LIFT NW AND N INTO THE ERN AND CNTRL GULF WED THROUGH THU. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 67W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU WHILE WEAKENING. SCATTERED TSTMS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 14N-16N ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONG E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE THAT QUICKLY RACES W REACHING NEAR 55W ON SAT...AND APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUN WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES ALONG IT OR POSSIBLY JUST THE LOW ITSELF APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDICATED IN THE NDFD GRIDS WITH POSITIONS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL NOT DEPICT WINDS AND SEAS WITH HIGH VALUES AS SEEN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL TRENDS AND DEPICTIONS OF THIS FEATURE TO MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NW PORTION.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS MORNING...MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE EAST-CNTRL GULF THEN ACCELERATE NE ACROSS NORTHERN FL LATE THU INTO FRI. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS EAST OF NE FLORIDA THU THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THOSE WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXPECTED TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS ZONE AMZ111 THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE MOVING NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS. STRONG SW WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS ZONES AMZ113 AND AMZ115 FRI THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHILE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ZONE AMZ111 FRI NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE FL TO THEW FAR WRN PORTIONS OF ZONE 113 WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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