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000
AGXX40 KNHC 201936
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
236 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence
through Tuesday, then medium thereafter.

A sharp mid-upper level trough extends across central Texas
southward to a base over central Mexico near 20N. This trough
supports an outflow boundary off the coast of Texas to NE Mexico
and associated heavy showers and tstms N of 23N W of 92W. Surface
observations show strong to near gale force winds behind the
boundary and dense fog ahead of it N of 27N to 89W. Weak high
pressure across the far eastern Gulf and low pressure to the W
is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere W of 85W with
seas from 3 to 6 ft being the highest seas on the NW Gulf.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough as it
continues to move E to the Gulf central waters before it is
overtaken by a cold front to exit the Texas coast later today.
The front will then move into the E Gulf on Wed with a center of
low pressure forming over the NE basin. Model guidance indicate
the low will then track SE into the Florida Peninsula Thu night
and into SW N Atlc waters Friday. Fresh to strong winds are
expected off the coast of Tampico and N of the Yucatan Peninsula
tonight. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected off the
coast of Veracruz Tuesday. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will
develop over NW waters Tuesday night and over the SE basin
Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong winds
in the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia today
through early Tuesday morning with seas reaching 7 ft off the
coast of Belize and 8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere with seas ranging between 3 to 5
ft...highest in the SW Caribbean. A cold front will move across
the NW Caribbean waters Wed through Friday supporting fresh to
strong winds off the coast of Belize, the Gulf of Honduras, the
Yucatan Channel and in the adjacent waters of the lee of Cuba
through Thursday and across the Windward Passage Thursday
through Friday. Light to moderate winds will dominate elsewhere
through Friday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high
confidence.

A cold front extends from a low pressure centered near 29N68W to
23N68W across the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N76W.
Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front from 20N to
26N between 61W and 67W being supported by an upper level trough.
A tight pressure gradient between the frontal system and high
pressure building across the Bahamas will support fresh to strong
winds within 240 nm from the low SW semicircle today. The low
will move SE today and out of the area tonight. A cold front will
move south of 30N tonight, which is forecast to extend from 28N65W
to 27N70W Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong N winds will accompany
the front. A low with associated cold front will move across
Florida into the W basin waters Thursday into Friday supporting
fresh to near gale force winds across and NE the Bahamas through
Saturday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.

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