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AGXX40 KNHC 121823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
123 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GULF WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING BASIN. MORNING OBS AND RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS WHERE WLY FLOW 15-20 KT IS YIELDING SEAS 4-5 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...REACHING FROM THE SE TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE SAT THEN NW CUBA TO TX-LA BORDER LATE SUN AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS N PORTIONS E OF FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY MON EVENING...AND SWEEP SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TUE AND INTO NW CARIB TUE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT EARLY TUE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WWD AND WEAKEN...EXTENDING FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS. STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT LAST NIGHT FROM LEE OF CUBA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE KICKED UP SEAS ACROSS NW PORTIONS...WITH 42057 STILL AT 9 FT EARLIER...AND A 1340Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWING SEAS 7-9 FT JUST TO THE W AND OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS. SEA SLOWLY SUBSIDING THERE ATTM. NOCTURNAL GALES OFF COLOMBIA HAS DROPPED TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE FLOW PREVAILS E PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. WEAK RIDGE N OF THE BASIN FORCING GALES LAST NIGHT WILL SHIFT ENE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT PEAK WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA TO AROUND 30 KT WHILE WINDS ELSEWHERE W HALF BEGIN TO VEER VERY SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH FRONT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING...MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT REMNANTS THROUGH SAT TO MAINTAIN 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS WITH BENIGN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN DROPPING S ACROSS NW CUBA AND INTO NW PORTIONS VERY EARLY SUN...AND STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND IT MAINTAINING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. HIGH WILL SHIFT E INTO W ATLC SUN NIGHT-MON AND ENHANCE PRES GRADIENT DUE S AND ACROSS COLOMBIAN BASIN FOR RETURN TO NOCTURNAL GALES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 30N56W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM. WEAK HIGH BEHIND FRONT IS SHIFTING ENE WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT...BUT RECENT ASCAT PASSES STILL SHOW NE WINDS 20 KT NW OF FRONT FROM 65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N CENTRAL CUBA. SEAS BEHIND FRONT RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT ABOVE WW3 ATTM...AND UP TO 3 FT LOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS WHERE NW SWELL IS DOMINATING AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS 12-13 FT. SFC LOW HAS SHIFTED ENE OFF THE GA-SC COASTS AND PRODUCING 20-30 KT SW WINDS ACROSS THE S SEMICIRCLE AND LOCAL NW WATERS. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM NEAR 31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN...THEN DISSIPATE INTO MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. GALE FORCE S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT NOW IN DEPICTING GALES AHEAD OF LOW AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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