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AGXX40 KNHC 280630
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT S TO THE SE GULF THROUGH THE DAY WHERE IT WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WHICH WILL MANAGE TO SAG S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. OTHERWISE THERMAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING EACH EVENING...SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND INTO THE SW GULF WHERE DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE SW GULF WITH PULSING WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF EACH THERMAL TROUGH.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN THE ATLC TO THE NE OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PULSING TO 30 KT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 7-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N79W ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. OTHERWISE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING...EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TO THE S OF 22N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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