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AGXX40 KNHC 281854
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE E COAST OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE THU. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE NE GULF FROM THE ATLC ALONG 24N. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE SAT. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS JUST N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST THROUGH THU...THEN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BREAK DOWN AS MATTHEW APPROACHES FROM THE E.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW THAT HAD BEEN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW. MATTHEW IS CENTERED JUST E OF ST LUCIA NEAR 14N61E. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES GALES TO THE N OF THE CENTER FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. AN ALTIMETRY PASS GENERALLY CONFIRMS AN AREA OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER CORRESPONDS WITH THE AREA OF GALES. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INTENSIFYING MATTHEW INTO A HURRICANE WARNING AS IT STEERS W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FORECAST TRACK OF MATTHEW BECOMES UNCERTAIN BEYOND SAT AS GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF MATTHEW. MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE IN TURNING MATTHEW SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG 75W ON SUN...THEN MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL COURSE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOLUTIONS VARY MARKEDLY IN HOW FAST MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD. THE GFS CARRIES MATTHEW INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MON NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO THE SAME AREA WED NIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW AFTERWARDS.

DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. ACCORDINGLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT THEN STALL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N...MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH FRI. S OF 26N...MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WED AND THU AND IN THE SE BAHAMAS THU AND FRI AS MATTHEW HEADS W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MATTHEW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BUT TIMING VARIES BETWEEN LATE ON MON TO LATE ON WED.


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI.
.AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI.
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... HURRICANE WARNING FRI.
.AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. HURRICANE WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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