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AGXX40 KNHC 280605
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging will continue over the Gulf through Friday night, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. The only exception will be fresh northeast winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche at night associated with a thermal trough. An upper low over Cuba, and a surface trough over the northeastern Gulf, will support scattered thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through Friday night.

The pattern will change on Saturday as a cold front crosses the southeastern United States and enters the north central and northeastern Gulf late Saturday. This front will be accompanied by numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms as it drifts slowly south to around 28N Saturday night through Sunday. The front will then stall out by Sunday night along about 28N and meander over the central and eastern Gulf waters as it transitions to a trough through early next week. This stalled front and then surface trough will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern half of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh westerly winds will arrive over the northeastern Gulf on Saturday through Sunday ahead of the front, with briefly fresh northerly winds also possible over the northeastern Gulf through Sunday to the north of the front. As the front stalls out Sunday night, expect mainly gentle to moderate winds to prevail over the Gulf through early next week, except stronger winds near thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Through Sunday night, ridging north of the area will continue to support fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean mainly to the S of 17N between 65W and 80W, with the strongest winds along the coasts of NW Venezuela and Northern Colombia, with the area of strong winds extending as far N as 15N just prior to sunrise each morning. On Monday, enhanced trade winds from a tropical wave passage will produce fresh to locally strong east to northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic waters, Leeward Islands, northeastern Caribbean, and along the southern coast of Hispaniola, lasting through Wednesday. Seas will build to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic waters north of 15N Monday night, reaching the Atlantic passages of the northeastern Caribbean Islands on Tuesday.

The ridge north of the region will expand westward Monday night through mid week which will support fresh to strong east winds over the Gulf of Honduras each night.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A ridge of high pressure will extend across the Bahamas the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will develop W of 77W and N of the ridge on Fri, and continue through Sat ahead of a weak cold front sliding off the Georgia coast late Saturday night. The front will stall from around 31N78W to 29N82W on Monday, before dissipating to a trough and drifting northwestward mid week. This frontal system will support enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity over the waters within a couple of hundred miles of the frontal boundary.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly flow is forecast south of the ridge axis through Monday. By Monday night, a tropical wave crossing the southeastern waters will be followed by a freshening of the trades with occasionally strong east to northeast winds possible south of 22N Monday night through Wednesday, with seas building to 6 to 9 ft, highest over the southeastern zone AMZ127.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.

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