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AGXX40 KNHC 181844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF

LOW CENTER EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 29.5N86.7W WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY S THEN SW TO NEAR 22.5N94.5W...AND WARM FRONT FROM LOW EWD ACROSS N FL. BUOYS OFF OF AL/MS/SE LA COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING 20-25 KT ALL MORNING AND GUSTING NEAR 30 KT...WHILE A 1526Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT ON EDGE OF PASS JUST TO THE E OF THESE BUOYS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING FOR NW QUAD OF LOW 18-00Z AS GFS 30M WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL GALES...AND SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE CHANCES FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THROUGH 03Z. SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF FRONT HAS WEAKENED PAST FEW HOURS..BUT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LINE OF STRONG TSTMS MOVING ONTO W COAST OF FL AND TAMPA BAY WITH A MESO LOW SUGGESTED EARLIER. LOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY OUT THE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON AND INLAND BY AROUND 21Z...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT N OF 27N. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL POSITIONING AND TIMING OF FRONT BUT HANDLING LOW DIFFERENT AS LLVL VORT MORE ELONGATED BY UKMET AND LESS CONSOLIDATED WITH ECMWF. NWLY FLOW 20-25 KT ON BACK SIDE OF LOW AND FRONT TO PREVAIL ACROSS NE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 8 FT AND HIGHER BEFORE FRONT CLEARS BASIN TO THE SE AND LOW SHIFTS INTO ATLC. A TRANQUIL TREND WILL THEN ENSUE THROUGH TUE HAS HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE N AND NW GULF AND WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PREVAIL W OF 80W ATTM AS GULFMEX FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD BASIN. ELSEWHERE...1030 HIGH NE OF BERMUDA PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ATLC S OF 24N AND INTO E 2/3RD OF CARIB...WHERE BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES PREVAIL. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO SETTLE SE AND WEAKEN...WITH GRADIENT WINDS SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH SUN. SUFFICIENT GRADIENT EXPECTED TONIGHT TO YIELD NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA...BUT WILL WEAKEN THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GULFMEX FRONT TO MOVE SE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON AND REACH TO ALONG ABOUT 20N BY LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED INSIDE CARIB BEHIND FRONT.

MIXED ELY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NE SWELL TO MIX ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN TO KEEP SEAS 8-9 FT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLANTIC RIDGE OPENING UP INTO SE U.S. AHEAD OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT AND LOW...WITH ZONE OF STRONG ESE TRADES 20-25 KT S OF 24N PER RECENT ASCAT PASS. ENE TRADE WIND SWELL AND NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL PRODUCING SEAS 8-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF AREA E OF 72W ATTM. GULFMEX LOW TO EXIT OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE SAT AND MOVE SLOWLY NE THROUGH FIRST PART OF WEEK...WITH STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS NW SEMICIRCLE TO GENERATE LARGE SEAS OFF SE COAST OF U.S. EXTENDING DOWN INTO FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...AND COULD LINE UP TO SEND SWELL BEHIND BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL WATERS MON. GALES EXPECTED SUN ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF LOW BEYOND SUN...WITH GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND HAVE TRIED TO GO CLOSER TO GEFS MEAN. SLY FLOW 20-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF 26-27N SAT AND SUN AND SHIFTING E OF 70W MON. N TO NE FLOW MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT OFFSHORE OF JAX AND COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT OTHERWISE...20-25 KT OF WRAP AROUND FLOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ALONG FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING TONIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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