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000
AGXX40 KNHC 221724
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO THU...WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT JET DYNAMICS ENHANCING CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE AREA TODAY INTO WED. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHED SOME VORTICITY NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WED...LEAVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THU. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT H85 AND DEEPER WITH THE H2 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AT THAT TIME THAN THE 12Z GFS. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS IS GENERALLY STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WIND FIELD WITH BOTH THE TROUGH SHED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW ENERGY IN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...BUT HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE 06Z GEFS SHOWS NO CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA NEAR THE TROUGH SHED FROM THE WAVE AND ONLY SHOW UP TO A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE ECMWF ENS MEAN AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE 06Z GEFS SUPPORT THE DEEPER UPPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS SOLUTION. BY LATER FRI...THE GFS BECOMES AN EASTERN OUTLIER WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEAN THAN THE 12Z GFS...SO THE 00Z ECMWF IS FAVORED OVERALL.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS WEAK ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...WITH THE 1017 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY 450 NM SW OF THE AZORES EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. A STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER ALONG 55W. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING TROUGHING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TUE THROUGH THU. THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP THE PRES GRADIENT WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY PREFERRED IN THE OTHER BASINS AND LOOKS ACCEPTABLE HERE.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. EC WAVE AND NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST TUE AND SLOWLY PASS INTO NW WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 06Z GEFS DOES NOT SHOW A CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NW WATERS. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS 25 KT WINDS N OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY BLOWS UP A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE MID ATLC ON WED...CONSIDERABLY MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS OUTLIER SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. THE OTHER 12Z MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE FORECAST AREA...HANGING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WED THROUGH FRI. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE PREFERENCE TOWARD THE ECMWF DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...WILL ADJUST TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF HERE.



$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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