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AGXX40 KNHC 271717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1217 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 23N96W AT 1023 MB CONTROLS THE WESTERN GULF AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW TO N WINDS E OF 90W. SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE E OF 90W AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W OF 90W...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 94W.

OVERALL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH WILL MERGE WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE WATERS BY THU MORNING ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 27N THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED YET AGAIN ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF WATERS SAT INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY SUN.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING AND RELATIVELY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 16N. ISOLATED LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. IN ADDITION...CONVERGING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 79W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING S-SW TOWARDS COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH N TO NE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED INTO THU EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PEAK WINDS AT THIS TIME REMAIN NEAR 30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS EVEN HINTS AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 06-12 UTC ON SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TIGHT RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRENGTHENED PRES GRADIENT IN THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. THIS GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SEAS AT THE LARGEST AREAL EXTENT OF WIND ARE FORECAST TO 9 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THU INTO THU NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE BY FRI MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE WED NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY LATE THU NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE NE PORTION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SOME NW SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THE EASTERN FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 21N72W...AND THE WESTERN FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...WITH AN AREA OF S-SW STRONG TO OCCASIONAL NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 24N E OF THE WESTERN FRONT TO 55W. SEAS HAVE PEAKED AROUND 20-22 FT IN THE VICINITY OF 31N71W THIS MORNING AND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12-14 FT ACROSS ZONE AMZ115 BY WED.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONTS MERGE AND PUSH E OF 65W. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST TWO FRONTS AND WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CAPE CANAVERAL LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ONLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT BY THEN ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THAT HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SE REACHING 30N75W BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA BY FRI AFTERNOON...QUICKLY RACING EASTWARD AND EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 28N77W LATE FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT LIES ALONG 27N BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND IT...HOWEVER FRESH NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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