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AGXX40 KNHC 041953
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF WIND/WAVE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 29N FROM WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON WILL SUPPORT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS N OF 26N...EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE USUAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING AND MOVING NW THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING THE DAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF WIND/WAVE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE NE OF THE AREA ALONG 30N IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUE THROUGH THU AS THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON...AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC MON MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS GALES...BUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 32-33 KT MAX WINDS IN FORECAST GRIDS DURING LULL PERIODS AND 34-36 WINDS DURING PEAK PERIODS WAS NOT DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BREAK OUT GALE AND NON-GALE EPISODES IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS ENTIRE SCENARIO QUITE WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY SUN AND MON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST N OF 35N. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EAST WHILE THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC ALONG 46W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. TOTAL PRECIP WATER TPW IMAGERY INDICATES EACH OF THESE WAVES LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO TAP INTO FOR MAJOR CHANGES IN WEATHER AS THEY PASS A GIVEN LOCATION.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF WIND/WAVE MODELS BLENDED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG 29N-30N WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THU. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST TUE WILL DISRUPT AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND ALSO DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH NE WATERS TUE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WITH THE AREA OF WIND SHRINKING CLOSER TO THE COAST MON THROUGH WED AS THE RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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