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AGXX40 KNHC 311736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF GFS. TAFB-NWPS AND WW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER 2 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND UNDER 6 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL THEN MOVE WEST OVER THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT...SUPPORTING FRESH EASTERLY WINDS.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INLAND OVER TEXAS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF MID TO LATE WEEK. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF. SOME ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND BRING EITHER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE GULF ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HELPING TO LIFT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF...AND THE LOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MADE WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF GFS. TAFB-NWPS AND WW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 15N IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SW AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS IN THIS WEEK...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SINCE MODELS HAVE VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC. THIS WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING EARLY THU...WITH FRESH WINDS SPREADING TO THE NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO FRI. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT FROM THE N COLOMBIA COAST TO S OF GRAND CAYMAN LATE THIS WEEK.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM TRADES REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF GFS. TAFB-NWPS AND WW3 BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SW WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NE OF OUR AREA THROUGH WED AS THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE DRIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. MODELS ARE FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK...THEN BUILDING SE WITH AN AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 29N BY THE WEEKEND. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS MODELS TRY TO HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE EMERGING N OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. THESE SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE SUN THROUGH MON. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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