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AGXX40 KNHC 280700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NE GULF TODAY. A N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE AND VARIABLE WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A WEAK LOW AND TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE GULF ON MONDAY RAMPS UP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE BASIN. THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE EASTERN GULF THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. OR NORTHERN FLA. OUR FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW CERTAINTY OF THE INTENSITY WINDS WERE CAPPED AT 25-30 KT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THEN SPREAD N IN THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MID WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE GASTON NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS GASTON MOVES N AND RECURVES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON-WED. BY EARLY TUE... FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PERSISTING LATE INTO THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MON-THU.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N69W WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE NEXT TWO DAYS TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE N OF THE LOW CENTER. ASCAT DATA AT 0200 UTC SHOWED A WEAK LOW NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA ALONG A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED NEAR 23N80W. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRESH E-SE WINDS N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA TODAY. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GASTON WILL PERSIST IN NORTHEASTERN WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W THROUGH MON.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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