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AGXX40 KNHC 220739
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE N CENTRAL TO NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE W PORTION...LOW CONFIDENCE E PORTION.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST E OF ST MARTIN. 0110 UTC AND 0158 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW WINDS ONLY TO 25 KT N OF THE SYSTEM AND SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. AIR CRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AROUND 18Z YESTERDAY HAD FOUND 40 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT DETERMINED THE CIRCULATION WAS UNORGANIZED. GALE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED BASED ON THE RECON. CONFIDENCE HAS WANED IN THE EXISTENCE OF GALES ATTM. AFRAID TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE PREVIOUS GALE WARNING...WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH 00Z SUN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED UNTIL IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA LATER ON SAT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE GALE AROUND ANOTHER 12 HOURS UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO HISPANIOLA. THIS ALSO GIVES THE DAY SHIFT SOME WIGGLE ROOM WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM IN CASE IT INTENSIFIES LATER TODAY. WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THEREAFTER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM LATE SAT ONWARD. THE 00Z GFS IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE WPC/NHC COORDINATED FORECAST WHILE THE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...AND NAVGEM TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA BEGINNING SUN WHILE THE UKMET AND CMC ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE WESTERLY...SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH CUBA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE UKMET AND CMC APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS. THE GFS AND NWPS WERE PRIMARILY USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS EXPLAINED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO THE NHC/WPC COORDINATED FORECAST POINTS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW CURRENTLY JUST E OF ST MARTIN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE AND JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE WESTERN SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET AND CMC WERE DISREGARDED. THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A SLOWER NORTHWARD TURN INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC BEGINNING SUN. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE 00Z NAVGEM HAS ALSO SLOWED DOWN...BUT NOW SWINGS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND INTENSIFIES IT CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST WED COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST...WITH A TRACK CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND PREFERRED BY THE NHC/WPC COORDINATED FORECAST BY TUE. THIS IS WHEN THE GFS SWINGS THE TRACK MORE EASTERLY AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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