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AGXX40 KNHC 160705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TUE VERIFIED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.6N 96.0W. CURRENT OBS SHOW WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION...IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT SEAS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO LIGHTER WINDS. COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THU. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AFTER THU HOWEVER. GFS DEVELOPS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W OF TAMPA BAY WHICH MOVES NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO SW N ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT SE OF NEW ORLEANS FRI MORNING WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NE GULF. KEY FEATURE WILL BE STRENGTH AND DEEPENING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE U.S. THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER PAST TWO MODEL RUNS... SO USED A BLEND OF 18Z AND 00Z FOR GRIDS.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF AREA IS SHIFTING E AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH VERY FAR BEYOND YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED NIGHT THEN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THU THROUGH FRI. WEAK TRADE WIND REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ALL MODELS AGREE WITH CARRYING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT THIS MORNING AND VEER NE THROUGH THU. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST LESSENS AFTERWARD AS ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHER E AWAY FROM COAST AND CARRY A LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH SCENARIO...BUT MUCH WEAKER.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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