Home


000
AGXX40 KNHC 120720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N88W CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...AND ASCAT DATA INDICATES GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT...REACHING FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN WEAKEN SUN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NE GULF S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY TUE.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM HAITI TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ASCAT DATA SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 11.3N 74.5W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE WARNING FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...PEAK SLIGHTLY LOWER AT AROUND 30 KT SAT NIGHT...THEN PULSE TO GALE WARNING FORCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...A MIX OF EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FCST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT FROM 23N65W TO HISPANIOLA WILL STALL TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATER TODAY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE SUN...THEN DISSIPATE INTO MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE WARNINGS N OF 27N. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW GALE WARNINGS BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Home