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AGXX40 KNHC 011712
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
112 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E AS A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY JUST INSHORE THE TX COAST TRANSITIONS BACK TO A COLD FRONT...AND MOVES E OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF WATERS AGAIN TODAY...AND IS DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS TILL THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO MON EVENING...FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE NIGHT...THEN PASS THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON WED NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE TX COAST ON WED EVENING REACHING NEAR 26N94W ON THU WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO THE FL STRAITS.

EXPECT ONE LAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS EXPECTED E OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE E ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. FRESH N FLOW WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST... INCREASING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N97W ON MON EVENING THROUGH TUE EVENING. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF WATERS NEAR 20N96W ON TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING. THE POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT EVERYWHERE LATE THU NIGHT WITH MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN ACROSS THE NW GULF ON FRI EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

STRONG ESE TRADES CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM 11-14N BETWEEN 63-70W WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT...THEN FURTHER DIMINISH ON MON WITH MODERATE E FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA E OF 75W BY LATE TUE. FRESH E WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...AND AGAIN BRIEFLY ON MON AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WED AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM E CUBA TO FAR NE NICARAGUA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING. EXPECT ONLY MODERATE N FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 28N72W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 31N77W. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL STALL E OF 65W ON MON WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING BACK W OF 65W AND DISSIPATING ON TUE. A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL EARLY MON...THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FL ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON TUE NIGHT...PRECEDED BY FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO STALL.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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