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AGXX40 KNHC 250725
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1018 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO LATER TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT IN THE SW GULF.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NE OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND ALSO TO THE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...UP TO 8-11 FT...WITH MAINLY 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXED N-NE AND E SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN TO 3-5 FT BY EARLY MON. REINFORCING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS BACK TO 5-7 FT TUE THROUGH WED.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY BRIEF EXCEPTION WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA COAST SUN...GRADUALLY STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH MON. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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