Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1505 UTC Sat May 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 14N90W to 06N89W, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave continues to generate convection along and just east of its axis, and is embedded within a broad inverted trough at 700 mb. Isolated moderate to strong convection are along and within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 16N95W to 06N94W, moving westward at around 10 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded in a environment of deep moisture with a sharp 700 mb trough along the wave axis. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are from 02N to 15N between 92W and 99W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends across central America from 09N78W to 08N83W and over the eastern Pacific to 09N88W, then resumes west of a pair of tropical waves near 11N98W to 13N110W to 08N126W. The ITCZ begins near 08N126W and continues westward to beyond 06N140W. Other than convection associated with the tropical waves described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 78W and 82W, and within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough axis between 101W and 121W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Low pressure of 1012 mb over the northern Gulf of California has been weakening overnight with winds associated with the low now diminished to under 15 kt. Seas have also subsided to below 5 ft over the northern Gulf and will continue to improve through today. Gentle to moderate winds are expected over the Gulf the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Low pressure will develop over the western United states mid week, supporting moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf.

High pressure west of the region will support moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California the next several days with seas generally ranging from 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the Mexico offshore waters south of Baja California through the middle of next week. The only exception to the winds will be along a pair of tropical waves that pass along and south of the Tehuantepec area with convection. And, a broad area of low pressure that may develop out of these waves could support moderate to fresh winds over the Mexico offshore waters south of 20N next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will continue to intersect the region from west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly north of around 03N. North of the trough axis mainly light to gentle winds will prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. To the south of the trough axis moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds can be expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge is forecast to meander over the northwestern waters near 30N133W over the weekend and into early next week which will continue to support gentle to moderate winds over the northern waters west of the Mexico offshore waters with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds prevail over the waters south of 20N and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and support seas of 6 to 7 ft. Another area of high pressure is forecast to build west over the northwest waters by mid week which could increase the northeast trades to about 20 kt south of 20N and west of 130W, supporting seas to 8 ft.

$$ Latto

Home