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AXPZ20 KNHC 201004
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Post-Tropical remnant low pressure center of NORMA has a pressure of 1008 mb, and it is near 22N116W. Precipitation: a swirl of multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers covers the area that is from 16N to 25N between 114W and 121W. This feature will continue to move slowly NW for the next few days. Associated winds and seas will wind down slowly before the low center dissipates on Thursday.

The Post-Tropical remnant low pressure center of OTIS has a pressure of 1012 mb, and it is near 18N130W. Precipitation: a swirl of multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers covers the area that is from 16N to 25N between 114W and 121W. A sufficient pressure gradient exists between this low center and a surface ridge to the NW in order to create strong NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt WITHIN 90 NM in the NW QUADRANT. The sea heights range from 8 to 9 feet. The low center will continue to move WSW during the next 2 days and dissipate gradually. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and seas from 8 to 9 feet, will accompany the low center through Thursday.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W S OF 18N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 14N to 17N between 96W and 101W. Global models suggest that it is possible that a low pressure center may develop in this region in a few days as active convective precipitation continues.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 10N86W TO 14N96W TO 12N109W TO 12N115W TO 11N124W TO 14N134W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 390 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 90W, WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND TROPICAL WAVE, WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE AND 95W, AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 34N136W to 25N122W. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area N through NW of the remnant lows of Norma and Otis. A surface trough is in the northernmost part of the Gulf of California, where fresh northerly winds prevail across the nearshore waters of Baja California Norte. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and the trough is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds, and seas in the range from 5 feet to 7 feet. The ridge will build during the middle of the week as the remnants of Norma dissipate, which will freshen winds off the Baja California coast with seas building to 6 to 8 feet.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave across the W Caribbean is moving slowly into the far eastern waters of the Pacific Ocean. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds prevail to the N of the monsoon trough between 90W and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle northeasterly winds will develop briefly to the N of the monsoon trough Tue night before the trough lifts N and along the coasts. S to SW swell continues to propagate across the area with seas in the 6 to 8 foot range from 100W westward, and in the 4 to 6 foot range from 100W eastward.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high pressure center is located near 39N149W and extends S and SE into the waters N of 25N. The surface pressure gradient that exists between this high pressure, and the lower pressure that is in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds to the N of 20N west of 120W, and to the NW of Otis remnants, with seas in the 6 to 9 foot range. The ridge will prevail in the northern waters during the next few of days with these general conditions persisting.

$$ mt

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