AXNT20 KNHC 222337

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


Atlantic Gale Warning: A 985 mb low is centered at 35N55W with a
cold front entering our area near 32N48W and extending
southwestward to 18N63W. S to SW gale-force winds are located
north of 27N east of the front to 44W. The gale conditions are
expected to diminish in our area by 23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC
for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N16W to 00N44W to the South American coast near 01S47W. Widely
scattered moderate convection exists from 01N-06N between 05W-



As of 2100 UTC, a 1003 mb low is centered over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W. A cold front extends south-
southeastward from the low to the Florida Keys and western Cuba.
As observed by the WSR-88D radar network, numerous showers are
occurring in the Gulf of Mexico east of 85W, most of the Florida
peninsula, the Florida Straits, and central Cuba. However,
there is almost no lightning flashes associated with this
extensive area of showers and cloud top temperatures are
generally -40C or warmer. Scattered showers exist elsewhere east
of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico. Winds behind the front across
early the entire Gulf are rather weak - generally northwest at
20 kt or less. The surface low and front are supported by a
collocated upper-level low, as seen in the water vapor imagery.
Showers should subside over the eastern Gulf and Florida
peninsula on Thursday and winds remain weak for the next couple
of days. The winds in the western Gulf will switch to southerly
late Thursday and Friday ahead of the next cold front to reach
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday.


As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras. Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough
extends from central Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm of the trough, as
seen in the Cuban and Grand Cayman radars. South to
southwesterly winds ahead of the front are 15 to 20 kt. West to
northwest winds behind the front are 20 to 25 kt. Elsewhere
across the Caribbean, winds are very light - 15 kt or less. The
front should push slowly eastward and its associated winds will
diminish along the front by Friday morning. Scattered showers
should continue to occur in association with the front over the
central Caribbean, Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola through Friday.


A weak convergence line extends from the central Caribbean
across the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, which is causing some
scattered showers over Haiti. As the prefrontal trough and
front approach Hispaniola, showers could be enhanced on Thursday
and Friday in both Haiti and Dominican Republic.


A 985 mb low is centered at 35N55W with a cold front entering
our area near 32N48W and extending southwestward to 18N63W. See
special feature above regarding gale conditions. 20 to 25 kt W
winds behind the front extend down to about 25N west of the
front to 60W. Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough extends
from 22N51W to 13N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
located within 120 nm of the front north of 22N and within 180
nm east of the trough. Farther west, SE winds of 20 to 25 kt
are occurring north of 23N west of 78W to the Florida coast in
the flow ahead of a surface low/cold front. Numerous showers
are occurring in the same vicinity, including the Florida
peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas.

The 985 mb low will quickly move northeastward during the next
two days and winds greater than 20 kt will be north of our area
by Thursday night. The cold front should not progress much more
to the south or the east, and should gradually fade by Friday.
In the western Atlantic, a frontal low should move off of the
Florida coast and E to SE winds should reach gale ahead of the
by Thursday afternoon. An associated cold front should extend
from the low to eastern Cuba. The low and front should move
slowly eastward by Friday afternoon with gale force winds ahead
of the front. Continued scattered to numerous showers should
occur within 120 nm of the front through Friday.

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