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000
AXNT20 KNHC 232334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
734 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 12N25W to 04N26W moving west at 10 kt. The SSMI TPW animation shows a surge of moisture along the wave axis. A trough is also well depicted at 700 mb. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A weak tropical wave extends from 13N57W to 05N58W moving W at 10-15 kt. The TPW animation shows a modest surge of moisture near the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean Sea. Its axis extends from Jamaica near 18N77W to E Panama near 09N78W moving W at 10-15 kt. The SSMI TPW animation shows a modest surge of moisture along the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 11N15W and continues to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 07N28W to 06N40W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 34W-44W. Similar convection is from 05N-09N between 50W-56W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from S Mississippi near 30N89W to S Texas near 26N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 25N from the front to N Florida. 15 kt N winds are W of the front. 10-15 kt SE to S winds are E of the front due to surface ridging. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over N Texas. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf N of 24N enhancing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for another cold front to enter the NW Gulf and merge with the current cold front. The combined front in 24 hours will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche with convection well E of front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough. Scattered showers are also over E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. Expect the tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours.


...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. A tropical wave over Jamaica will move W over the next 24 hours and lessen the amount of available moisture over Hispaniola.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 36N58W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N33W to 24N50W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N29W. Of note in the upper levels, a very large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic enhancing the cold front. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from 31N28W to 22N45W with showers. Later by Wednesday night, strong to near gale force winds are expected over the SW N Atlantic, E of Florida, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the area on Thursday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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