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WTNT33 KNHC 020245
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014


...DISORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.7N 63.0W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GUADELOUPE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE SATURDAY...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.



NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$ FORECASTER BRENNAN



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