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WTPZ22 KNHC 170850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
0900 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.8N 102.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 105.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 111.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 101.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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