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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
TCDEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015



The cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate, but it is organized enough to keep the same Dvorak T-numbers with an initial intensity of 90 kt. Guillermo is heading toward a shear environment, and on this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a gradual weakening. By the time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian Islands, the upper-level winds are forecast to be even more unfavorable, and by then, Guillermo is expected to have weakened to a tropical storm. The NHC forecast continues to be very close to the intensity consensus model ICON.

Guillermo is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is already located on the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and there is a large weakness in the ridge to its northwest. This pattern should force the cyclone to slow down even further and turn more to the west-northwest or northwest. The most reliable track models are now in better agreement, and the multi-model consensus brings Guillermo just north or very near the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast follows the consensus and is very similar to the previous one.

Due to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is important for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96 and 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72 hours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at those time periods.

Since Guillermo is now moving into the Central Pacific, future information will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at Honolulu, Hawaii.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$ Forecaster Avila

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