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WTPZ44 KNHC 020837
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

Satellite images indicate that curved banding features have become better established during the last several hours, and the low-level center is now estimated to be located beneath the deep convection. Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS all support raising the initial wind speed to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Simon. This is the 18th named storm of the busy 2014 hurricane season in the east Pacific basin. Simon is expected to strengthen during the next few days while the storm remains over warm water and within a fairly low wind shear and moist environment. The combination of an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler water should stop the strengthening trend in about 3 days, and induce a gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus, given the expected favorable conditions during the next few days, leaning toward the more aggressive SHIPS model.

Simon is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 days while the storm is steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. The model guidance is in fair agreement during that time period, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The guidance diverges significantly beyond that time period, however, with many of the models showing a turn to the north and then northeast toward large-scale troughing over the U.S. Conversely, the ECMWF shows less interaction with the trough and takes the storm farther west. The NHC track forecast lies on the western side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5, similar to the previous forecast, but confidence at the longer range is low at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.1N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.5N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 23.2N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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