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WTPZ44 KNHC 270903
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Madeline is gradually becoming better organized this morning, with increasing convective banding noted near the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and this intensity is supported by various objective estimates from CIMSS and CIRA.

The initial motion is now 300/9. For the next few days, Madeline should move generally northwestward as it is steered by a segment of the subtropical ridge. After 72 hours, a turn toward the west is likely as Madeline encounters the westward-building subtropical ridge that is steering Hurricane Lester. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the north since the previous advisory, and near the end of the forecast period there is a fair amount of spread regarding whether Madeline will move near the Hawaiian Islands or north of them. The new forecast track is shifted northward, but it lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.

Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a light-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in showing Madeline becoming a hurricane in 36 hours or so. After 72 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass along the forecast track should result in a slow weakening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast, but it lies a little below the intensity consensus.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about 170 miles.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 14.5N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$ Forecaster Beven



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