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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280234
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory. However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and the circulation continues to gradually spin down. ASCAT data still showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher side of the satellite intensity estimates. Water temperatures between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit, with an initial motion of 300/14 kt. Marie is forecast to turn northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase, but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Berg



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