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WTPZ43 KNHC 300841
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible that some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return to the circulation today. A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed the radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps generously, at 35 kt. Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast to become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and continued weakening is expected. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus, although just a little higher, suggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated here.

There has been little movement over the past several hours, which was anticipated by the track model guidance. Rachel is in an environment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so through today. A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest and north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move very slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn toward the west. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Pasch

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