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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291439
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface circulation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined. The post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep convection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to sea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C. The winds associated with the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation of the system expected in a couple of days.

The initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest direction, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours. The NHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and follows the TVCE consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Roberts



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