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WTPZ42 KNHC 260847
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Genevieve's deep convection weakened considerably since the last advisory up until about 0630 UTC when a new burst began developing to the east of the center. Based on the poor convective organization, satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt. Genevieve's future intensity remains highly uncertain. Strong westerly shear is likely to continue for another 36 hours or so, after which time the upper-level environment could become less hostile. The GFS and GFDL models continue to show Genevieve maintaining or increasing in intensity while the SHIPS and LGEM models suggest that the cyclone will become a remnant low or dissipate sometime during the next 5 days. If Genevieve remains embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is a distinct possibility, then a weaker cyclone would be the more likely scenario. The official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON and just a little lower than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours to account for the new initial intensity.

Genevieve remains within the ITCZ and has been unable to gain any latitude. The initial motion is 270/4 kt, and the storm is likely to continue a westward heading and accelerate during the next day or so due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north. There is not much spread among the track guidance although the models have trended toward a faster forward motion. The updated NHC track forecast is therefore a bit faster than the previous forecast and the model consensus TVCE, mainly during the first 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 12.2N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.3N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 12.5N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 12.7N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 13.0N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 13.5N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 14.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Berg



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