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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER BRENNAN



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