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WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deep organized convection has been absent in Orlene for over 18 hours at this point. Given the expectation of continued hostile conditions - cool SSTs and a stable, dry atmosphere - convection is unlikely to resume and Orlene is now considered a post-tropical remnant low. Peak winds are estimated to be about 30 kt, assuming a continued spin down of the circulation. The system should gradually weaken and open up into a trough in about three days.

Orlene is moving toward the west at about 8 kt. The remnant low should advect along in the low-level trade wind flow at a somewhat faster forward speed until dissipation.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.1N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 20.1N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 20.0N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 19.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 19.9N 136.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Landsea



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