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000
WTNT44 KNHC 061753
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the coastline appears now to be minimal. This special advisory is being issued to discontinue the remaining coastal tropical storm warnings and to terminate National Hurricane Center advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine.

There has again been little change in the structure of Hermine since the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. Buoy data suggests the circulation is still slowly decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system moving eastward across the New England States.

After a brief slowing this morning, the center has moved a little faster and the initial motion is now 265/6. Other than that, the track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the last advisory. A slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely during the next 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

For future information on Hermine, please see products issued by your local NWS Forecast Office. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 39.4N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Beven



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