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000
WTNT43 KNHC 250240
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

No deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between 1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of convection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to meet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical cyclone. Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have been supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now moved farther to the west of that feature. In the absence of any other synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep convection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available tonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Without any convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west.

The low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure system centered near the Azores. The global models are in good agreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next day or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in 12-24 hours. A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the approaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates entirely.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 25.8N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1200Z 27.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 29.3N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 31.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky

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