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000
WTNT42 KNHC 302033
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016

Gaston appears to have strengthened some more. The hurricane has been maintaining a large and well-defined eye with mesovorticies within it. In addition, a ring of deep convection surrounds the eye with little evidence of dry slots. The Dvorak intensity estimates have increased from both TAFB and SAB, and they support raising the initial wind speed a little more to 95 kt. Gaston is likely to maintain this intensity, or perhaps strengthen a little more, in the short term while it remains in generally favorable environmental conditions. The global models indicate that westerly shear should increase over Gaston on Wednesday, and that should promote a gradual weakening trend. More pronounced weakening is expected when Gaston moves over cool waters in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at 12 h, based on the higher initial wind speed, but is otherwise largely unchanged.

The initial motion is now 065/9 kt. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slower forward speed is forecast beyond a few days when a large extratropical low nears Gaston and eventually absorbs it in about 5 days. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, and brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in about 3 days. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system.

The wind radii were modified based on ASCAT and AMSU data from earlier today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 51.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 33.4N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 34.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 36.6N 43.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 37.9N 39.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 38.8N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 40.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi



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