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WTNT41 KNHC 032031
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 31.8N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER PASCH



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