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FOPZ14 KNHC 011432
PWSEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

15N 145W 34 2 23(25) 50(75) 6(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82)
15N 145W 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47)
15N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)

20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14)

15N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17)
15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 2(25)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 2(21)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16)

20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)

15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)

BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)

18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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