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FOPZ14 KNHC 250857
PWSEP4

HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017
0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

15N 110W 34 1 52(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
15N 110W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 110W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)

ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 67(76) 9(85) X(85) X(85)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 13(49) X(49) X(49)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26)

15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 2(35) X(35)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14)

20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 32(67) 2(69)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15)

25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 26(47)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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