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000
FOPZ12 KNHC 172052
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 4(25) 1(26)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 1(23)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12)

LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)

P VALLARTA 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)

BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 21(25) 8(33) 3(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

MANZANILLO 34 4 16(20) 6(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)

L CARDENAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 27(40) 4(44) 1(45)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12)

ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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