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AGXX40 KNHC 301738
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
138 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO S TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE EXCEPT IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE...EVENTUALLY MOVING SE OF THE AREA EARLY SAT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE FRI AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...AND SE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO COVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH EARLY SUN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY SUN AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 3-5 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THEN W OF THE AREA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON WHERE ITS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW. A SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CATCH UP WILL THE INITIAL SLOWED FRONT EARLY SUN AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL SHIFT E AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY EARLY MON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 70W. A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...4-6 FT E OF THE TROUGH...2-4 FT W OF THE TROUGH OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING ITS FORWARD MOTION TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT THEN FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA EARLY SUN. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT E AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT SUN AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 25N65W TO E CUBA BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. THE SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE TWO FARTHEST NW ZONES BY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GALE CONDITIONS SHIFT N OF THE AREA EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A SET OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 18 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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