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AGXX40 KNHC 101827
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
127 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...3-5 FT OVER THE SW GULF...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE NW GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG THE NEAR GALE WINDS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY WITH THE MERGED FRONTS DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON SUN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI WITH THE TRADE WIND SWELL TO 8 FT PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N65W TO HISPANIOLA. THIS MORNINGS 1412 ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS HAVE STARTING TO DECREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE GALES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...BUT THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE TAKEN DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN NW SWELL...6-8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT AND SHIFT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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