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AGXX40 KNHC 231742
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN...1-2 FT OVER THE NE GULF...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF THE FRONT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE N OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND E OF THE AREA BY SUN. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP E OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN WATERS BY WED.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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