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AGXX40 KNHC 300823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
423 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED LOW ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE WITH TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO PROMOTING STRONG RISING MOTION TO ITS E ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS BOTH E AND W. LOW HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY NE PAST 24 HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE FASTER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BEST DYNAMICS SHIFTING N AND NE WITH IT. OTHERWISE...VERY WEAK RIDGE PREVAIL N GULF ATTM...WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY NW INTO FL KEYS AND W CUBA. 03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM W OF THE KEYS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE WINDS WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND ANTICYCLONIC. IN THE SHORT TERM REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE FORECAST ISSUE ACROSS THE E GULF. GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 48HR IN SHIFTING A SHARP TROUGH NW INTO E SECTIONS WITH GFS A BIT FARTHER W. TROUGH THEN MEANDERS THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE DRIFTING NE AND INLAND WED. LOOK FOR STRONG LLVL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH TODAY AS IT SHIFTS NW TO NNW AND ACROSS COASTAL AND MAY EDGE INTO SW AND CENTRAL FL COASTAL WATERS. WEAK RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE N GULF WED TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS S HALF OF BASIN AND ALLOW FOR YUCATAN THERMAL TROUGH TO SET UP EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INVERTED TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW CARIB SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA...AND IS PRODUCING LIGHT WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS W OF 80W. IN SHARP CONTRAST STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIB AS HIGH ACROSS SW N ATLC ALONG 68.5 HAS BUILT S TO GREATER ANTILLES AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT. 02Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADES EXTENDING FROM S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 13-14N WITH 30 KT WINDS OF NE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND INSIDE GULF OF VENEZUELA. TRADES EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30 KT OVERNIGHT HERE WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THIS BROAD ZONE OF STRONG TRADES HAS PRODUCED AN ANOMALOUS WAVE FIELD WITH BUOY 42058 HOLDING AT 10 FT LAT SEVERAL HOURS AND 3 EVENING ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWING LARGE SWATH OF 9-10 FT SEAS ALONG ABOUT THAT LAT BETWEEN 71W AND 76W. MID LEVEL VORT TRAILING TO THE SE OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW ACROSS CUBA TODAY AND INITIATE ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS NW CARIB WATERS THERE. STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD SLIGHTLY WWD INSIDE BASIN TODAY AS ERIKA REMNANTS CONTINUE MOVING NW THEN GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE BEFORE WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY WED AND THU AS SW N ATLC HIGH SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS...LEAVING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONFINED TO S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 14.5N THROUGH LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.

NEXT 2 TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN DURING THE PERIOD...THE FIRST CURRENTLY ALONG 65W AND THE SECOND ALONG 50W. MODELS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE AND OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES TO LARGELY SHIFT WNW AND PASS N OF 16N AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN...AND WILL IMPACT THE GREATER ANTILLES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS CONSENSUS.

BROAD LLVL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA REMNANTS PRODUCED GALES YESTERDAY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...AND HAVE SHIFTED NW WITH OLD REMNANT CENTER NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KEYS AND INTO EXTREME S FLORIDA. ZONE OF 25-30 KT HAS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND NOW NW BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING NW TODAY AND CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ACTIVE AND DEEP CNVTN FL AND FL COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...MODEST HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 31N68.5W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S TO HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCING STRONG WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO TURKS AND CAICOS AND SE BAHAMAS. AS ERIKA REMNANTS SHIFT NW ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF FAR ERN GULFMEX TODAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH FRESH E TO SE TRADES FROM 70W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS BECOMING S OFF OF NE FL THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND MON AS THAT ENERGY EXITS THE AREA. HIGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIB WILL BRUSH THE FAR SRN WATERS AND THE MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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