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AGXX40 KNHC 280759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT NE TODAY AND MERGE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS NE. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUNDAY. A TROUGH OFF NW YUCATAN WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THAT AREA. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FAIRLY MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...AND THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A BUILDING RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF CUBA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RELATIVE MODEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUOYS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ARE SHOWING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL. SEAS ARE 9 FT AT BUOY 41300 200 NM E OF GUADELOUPE...A COUPLE OF FEET HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 AND ECWAVE INITIALIZATIONS. BOTH WAVE MODELS INDICATE THE SEAS OF AT LEAST 8 FT WILL PERSIST E OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N75W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL GENERALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID/UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PROVIDING A REINFORCING IMPULSE OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 75W LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS REINFORCMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS SHOWING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING IMPULSE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS THE IMPACTS N OF THE AREA. RIDGING ACROSS MAINLY 27N AND MODERATE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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