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AGXX40 KNHC 300756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE COAST JUST S OF BIG BEND REGION. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING EXTENDING N TO S ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO COMBINING WITH RIDGE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SE FETCH OF 20 KT WINDS FROM OFFSHORE N COAST OF YUCATAN INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WITH AREAS 20-25 KT SUGGESTED BY MODELS. SEAS GENERALLY 6-8 FT THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WITH 42002 REPORTING 9 FT AT 00Z. SE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT ATTM ACROSS NE PORTIONS NEAR RIDGE AXIS. PLATFORMS ACROSS NW WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING FOG AND LOW CIGS WITH VSBYS 3-5 NM OF RECENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO SE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON. YUCATAN AFTERNOON THERMAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH OF NEXT FEW DAYS WITH GFS SUGGESTING SEABREEZE ALONG N COAST TO REACH 25-30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUN. RIDGE TO REORGANIZE SOMEWHAT ACROSS ATLC AHEAD OF FRONT TO PRODUCE SE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS ALL BUT NE PORTIONS OF BASIN THROUGH MON MORNING...WHILE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS N TO S ACROSS W PORTIONS AND OFFSHORE OF MEXICAN COAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BUT GFS IS SLOWEST AND PRODUCES WEAKEST N TO NNE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH ONLY 15-20 KT THROUGH EARLY WED...WHILE ECMWF DRIVES STRONGER NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT AND MORE REMINISCENT OF WINTER FROPAS...AND 25-30 KT OFF OF VERACRUZ. GLOBAL MODELS LEAN TOWARD STRONGER WIND FLOW AND FARTHER SE PUSH WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH WED...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ECMWF AND HAVE BLENDED IN ECMWF MODESTLY BEYOND MON.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE STILL BEING BLOCKED FROM BASIN BY SEVERAL ELONGATED TROUGHS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL ATLC...WITH WEAK AND BROAD TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB. THIS ALLOWING FOR MODEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE CARIB WHERE WINDS SUGGESTED TO 20 KT OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA EXTENDING N TO ABOUT 14N ATTM. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR HISPANIOLA PROVIDING DYNAMICS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO-VI AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. E TO ESE TRADES FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS NEXT FEW NIGHTS...WHILE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS MODESTLY SW TOWARDS NE CARIB BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE CARIB AND INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY BY EARLY MON AS ATLC RIDGING WEAKENS INTO REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST LLVL TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN TO YIELD SE FLOW E HALF AND MODERATE ELY FLOW CENTRAL AND W PORTIONS THROUGH WED.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE SNAKES WEAKLY W-SW INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING... INTERRUPTED BY SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS W OF 55W. THE TROUGHS ARE LLVL REFLECTIONS OF MID TO UPPER LOWS AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS YIELDING CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGHS. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA SPREADING E AND NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO-VI AREA AND ACROSS EXTREME NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS S TO ACROSS MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SINK SE INTO NW WATERS LATE TODAY AND THEN DRAG EWD ACROSS N PORTIONS THROUGH MON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF GENERALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRONOUNCED NE AND SE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGHS. HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MON FROM THE W ATLC TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO E-SE TRADES ACROSS S HALF OF AREA FLOWING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HIGH TO SHIFT NE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH RIDGE SHIFTING N TO ALONG 30N LATE MON INTO TUE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS W ATLC AND INT NW PORTIONS THROUGH THU WITH MODELS DEVELOPING DEEP LAYERED LOW ALONG COAST OF CAROLINAS. 00Z ECMWF VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND IS MUCH FASTER AND DEEPER WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND GFS...WHILE UKMET IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUS WITH BLENDING IN ECMWF BEYOND MON DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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