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000
AGXX40 KNHC 191838
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence
through Tuesday night...then low thereafter.

Weak high pressure across the eastern Gulf and low pressure
analyzed across Texas and north-central and NE Mexico is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds this afternoon. Buoy data
and ship observations indicate seas are generally 2-3 ft in the
NE and far SW Gulf and 3-5 ft across the NW and central portions
of the Gulf. Winds are forecast to increase into fresh to strong
levels through Monday morning across the western half of the
Gulf as the pressure gradient strengthens. An elongated low
pressure area and associated troughing will emerge off the SE
Texas coast Monday and move eastward into the central waters by
Tuesday. Model guidance shows the elongated troughing and
associated broad low pressure remaining nearly stationary across
the central waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night late and
then dissipating on Thursday. Due to a continued lack of model
consensus...as last night's ECMWF run carried the low farther
east...confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is
low.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure N-NE of the Caribbean is maintaining moderate to
occasional fresh easterly to southeast flow across the waters...
except near the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 77W where a fresh to strong nocturnal pulse is
expected for one more overnight period tonight into Monday
morning with seas topping out at 8-10 ft. Seas are generally 3-5
ft...except 5-8 ft in the aforementioned areas of stronger
winds. A broad low pressure system in the NW Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to develop Tuesday and will help to weaken the pressure
gradient in the Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday. As a result...
relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected Tuesday
through Thursday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high
confidence.

High pressure centered near 28N64W will shift E-NE overnight
tonight while an area of low pressure focused on a 1015 mb low
centered near 31N77W and the associated forming cold front
extending S-SW to the Florida coast near Jupiter will continue
moving E-SE and deepen slightly to a position of 28N67W by Monday
night. An area of scattered showers and tstms has moved well east
of the boundary in a line extending from 28N73W to 27N77W at
19/1800 UTC. Scatterometer data and buoy observations show
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the forecast
area with seas generally 3-5 ft W of 70W...and 5-7 ft elsewhere.
By Monday night...the cold front will be located across the
northeastern zones and begin to dissipate. A new cold front is
forecast to move into the area from the NW and clip the NE zones
introducing a new round of fresh to strong northerly winds Monday
through Tuesday generally E of 72W. Seas are expected to range
from 7-9 ft in the area of maximum winds W of the front. High
pressure across the SE CONUS will slowly shift E-SE Tuesday
through Thursday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster HUFFMAN. National Hurricane Center.

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