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AGXX40 KNHC 031745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 29N FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS WILL SUPPORT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS N OF 26N...EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURE OF A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING MOVING NW EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE NE OF THE AREA ALONG 30N IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED... WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED THROUGH SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST N OF 35N. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EAST. MEANWHILE THE LANDLOCKED LOW OVER N COLOMBIA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC ALONG 40W WILL MOVE W INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT THE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP TROPICS MAY NOT HAVE THE USUAL AMOUNT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS THEY TRAVERSE THE REGION.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH 34N48W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST N OF 35N TUE WILL DISRUPT AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL SHIFT E WED ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...


.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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