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AGXX40 KNHC 230755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH CENTER OF 1016 MB AT 27N92W DOMINATES THE GULF. LATEST BUOY AND CMAN REPORTS ALONG WITH A A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS WHERE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE PREVAIL AS WAS ALSO INDICATED IN AN ALTIMETER PASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR NE WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. WITH LIMITED FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING BEFORE IT DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD... SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK AS INDICATED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS REPORTED IN THE LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE... EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER SEA VALUES 1 TO 3 FT ARE BEING REPORTED. THE BROAD TROUGHING N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF 65W BY EARLY FRI AS WEAK PRES REPLACES IT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND FRESHEN WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT BY LATE FRI AND INTO SUN.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THESE WATERS. THE SWELL ENERGY IS DECAYING WITH TIME. THIS TREND WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SET OF NW TO N SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS PEAKING TO MOSTLY 8 FT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 9 FT SEAS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT... IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRES IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN SE TO S SWELLS E OF ABOUT 70W. MUCH LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE PRESENT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU NIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS LATE IN APRIL WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING E OF THE BASIN THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FRI...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT. SEAS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT AS THE NW SWELLS SHIFT E OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WATERS N OF 29N BY SUN NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE IN RELATION TO WINDS...AND ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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