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AGXX40 KNHC 251707
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed over the NE gulf waters with a ridge extending W-NW to NE Tx. The high will shift NW along the ridge to over the MS Delta late this afternoon, re- orientating the ridge SE to Fl Bay on Mon. A weak cold front will rotate around the ridge, and dip into the NE gulf waters on Mon night, and continue slowly S, eventually washing out across the e and Central waters along 27N on Tue into Wed.

An inverted thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons into the early evening hours, and move W-NW during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf by late each morning. Expect a moderate to locally fresh NE-E-E wind shift along the trough through Wed. An inverted trough is setting up from near BRO Tx to the western Bay of Campeche where it is expected to meander through late Tue. Expect light northerly winds to SW of the trough. Otherwise, light winds forecast near the surface high and along the ridge axis, and light to moderate return flow elsewhere through Wed. The pressure gradient will tighten on Wed, with moderate to fresh SE return flow developing over the W gulf on Wed night through Thu night, with strong E winds along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thu evening.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A tropical wave along 75W will continue W across the western Caribbean through late Mon night accompanied by a brief NE-E fresh wind shift. A second tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean late this afternoon accompanied by SCT RW/ISOL RW. Strong E trades, and seas to 11 ft, are expected across most of the Central Caribbean through tonight, with a band of these strong E winds then spreading W across the waters from 13N to 16N to the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua on Wed, all to the N of the monsoon trough that will extend across the SW Caribbean by mid week.

A tropical wave is analyzed E of the area to the S of 16N between 35W-40W. This wave should reach the Windwards on Mon night into Tue. The wave is preceded by a large area of dust that is expected to reduce the surface VSBY to 3 to 5 nm, and thus is reflected in the weather grids.


..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

An E to W ridge extending from 31N55W to Port Canaveral, Fl will retract E on Mon allowing a weak cold front to move off the SE CONUS. The weak front will stall briefly from 31N79W to 29N80W on Mon evening, and then move E again on Tue, reaching from 31N75W to Ft. Pierce Fl on Tue night, then stall from just W of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas on Wed into Thu, and dissipate on Thu night into Fri. Light to moderate southerly flow expected ahead of the front, and light to locally moderate northerly winds are forecast behind the front. Light to locally moderate SE return flow expected everywhere to the N of 23N on Thu night. Moderate to fresh easterly trades expected to the S of the ridge, except increasing to a strong breeze along the N coast of Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage this afternoon into early this evening, with this pattern repeating again on Mon afternoon and evening.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.

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