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AGXX40 KNHC 311735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA. THE MID- LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STARTING SAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NE GULF...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO ITS S. THIS WILL ALLOW SW WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT A FRESH BREEZE BEGINNING MON MORNING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE N.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HAS SHRUNK TO THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-78W AS CONFIRMED BY THE 1032 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS. THIS AREA WILL GROW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE SW N ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXPAND EASTWARD MON THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ASIDE FROM AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS TROPICAL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 77W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WILL CROSS 55W ON SAT...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE WED. A THIRD WAVE IS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED.




...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLUSTERED IN A SWATH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TOWARD LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS AREA IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW WATERS AND UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N71W AND A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. SW WINDS HERE ARE 20-25 KT ACCORDING TO THE 1428 UTC ASCAT PASS...WITH BUOY 41002 JUST NE OF THIS AREA REPORTING 19 KT SW WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS AT 1600 UTC. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY MON MORNING AS THE TROUGHING SLACKENS HERE. AS THE TROUGHING DIMINISHES...THE RIDGE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY LIES FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N62W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE SHOULD REACH FROM 30N65W TO PORT EVERGLADES SUN AND FROM 31N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY TUE. IN ADDITION...FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$


.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:


.GULF OF MEXICO... NONE.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$


.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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