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000
FZPN03 KNHC 180238
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 18. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 19. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT SEP 20.


.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.4N 104.6W 988 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 18 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N103W TO 12N105W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.7N 106.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE...180 NM SE...120 NM SW AND 45 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 101W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 19.2N 108.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 31 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 20.6N 111.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 21.6N 113.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 22.0N 115.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY.


.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.


.WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N127W TO 23N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N126W TO 22N140W. W OF TROUGH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.


.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0215 UTC THU SEP 18...


.TROPICAL STORM POLO...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 75 NM SW OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 08N87W TO 12N93W TO 14N99W THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 13N106W TO 12N115W TO 10N124W. ITCZ FROM 10N124W TO 09N127W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ALONG COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

$$
.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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