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000
FZPN03 KNHC 211504
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 21. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 22. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 23.


...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE LOWELL NEAR 20.0N 122.1W 982 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 21 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 280 NM W SEMICIRCLE...300 NM NE QUADRANT AND 390 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N AND 360 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 21.7N 124.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 280 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 09N TO 28N BETWEEN 110W AND 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 23.8N 127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 360 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL LOWELL NEAR 25.5N 129.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 27.3N 132.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LOWELL NEAR 28.5N 135.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.


...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.0N 136.9W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 21 MOVING S OR 180 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 15.0N 135.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.4N 134.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...30 NM NW QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.5N 131.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 23.0N 129.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 27.5N 131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY.


.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.


.LOW PRES NEAR 10N96W 1007MB. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12N98W 1006 MB. FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W SE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11N102W 1006 MB. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SE SWELL. WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N96W TO 08N99W TO 05N105W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12N105W 1003 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 103W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.


.S OF 02S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.


.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 131W AND 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS


.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC THU AUG 21...


.HURRICANE LOWELL....SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT OF CENTER.


.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER.


.LOW PRES NEAR 10N96W 1007 MB SURFACE TROUGH TO 16N96W... SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N90W TO 15N96W AND FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.


.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W INCLUDING S GULF OF CALIFORNIA.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 06N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N96W 1007 MB TO 09N103W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 330 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W TO 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

$$
.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

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