Hurricane model transition to operations at NCEP/EMC: R.
Tuleya (Old Dominion Univ.)
- Obtain the most realistic hurricane initial condition
possible.
- Develop a more physically consistent landfall prediction,
using an advanced land surface model and verifying both rainfall and
winds.
- Analysis and resolution of day-to-day problems in the HWRF
system.
Improving the Hurricane WRF-Ocean Coupled System for
Transition to Operations: I. Ginis (Univ. of Rhode Island) and M. Bender
(NOAA/GFDL)
- GFDN model improvement:
- Increase horizontal grid spacing from 1/12th to1/18th
degree in the inner mesh.
- Couple with the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model.
- Improve physics of the air-sea fluxes, including sea
spray effects (implement the new URI air-sea interface model (ASIM)
coupled with the ESRL sea-spray model).
- Implement Navy's NCODA real-time ocean analysis in the
Atlantic basin.
- HWRF model improvements
- Improve physics of the air-sea fluxes, including sea
spray effects (implement the new URI air-sea interface model (ASIM)
coupled with the ESRL sea-spray model).
- Assist in testing and evaluating the improved
HWRF-Wave-Ocean coupled system.
Evaluation and Improvements of Cloud and Precipitation
Physics in the Operational Hurricane WRF Model at NOAA/EMC: Y. Wang and V.
Phillips (Univ. of Hawai.i)
- Evaluate and identify possible discrepancies in current
cloud and precipitation physics used in the HWRF model and understand how
these discrepancies may affect hurricane structure and intensity.
- Diagnose discrepancies of the current cloud and
precipitation physics and the interaction between grid-scale moist
processes and subgrid-scale convection in the HWRF model and to understand
how they affect hurricane intensity and structure, including size.
- Improve the representation of the cloud and precipitation
physics in the HWRF model based on the PI and co-I.s previously results
and evaluate the performance of the modified schemes through model
inter-comparison between the HWRF model and TCM4.
- Test and tune the modified schemes in the experimental
prediction mode and to evaluate their overall improvements in predicting
hurricane structure and intensity using the HWRF model hindcasts for the
cases in the 2010 hurricane season.
- Document the modified schemes with both technical and
scientific details and to provide training to the members of the HWRF
model development team at NCEP/EMC.
Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean Model
Parameterizations for NCEP Operations: N. Shay (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS) and G.
Halliwell (NOAA/AOML)
- Determine lowest horizontal and vertical resolution that
resolves the ocean response structure
- Evaluate different vertical mixing schemes, including one
proposed by Kantha and Clayson that is now being added to HYCOM
- Improve ocean model initialization by evaluating ocean
hindcasts available from operational centers (particularly NCEP and NRL)
and provide feedback for improving these products, including the
identification of deficiencies in observational coverage
- Determine optimum parameterizations of surface flux drag
coefficients, using results from tank experiments, GPS sonde analysis, and
the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program
- Devise strategies to improve model efficiency (decrease
run time)
- Continue interaction with NOAA-NCEP-EMC that we
established during summer 2008 help evaluate the ongoing HWRF tests.
Improving Predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP)
in Ocean Model for Assistance to Operational Hurricane Forecast: C. Wang and
S.-K. Lee (NOAA/AOML)
- Evaluate and improve HYCOM.s predictability of the AWP and
associated mesoscale ocean features for NCEP/EMC transition to operational
hurricane forecast
- Deliver an improved Real Time Ocean Forecasting System for
Atlantic that will be equipped with flux bias correction scheme (with an
option to couple with an atmospheric mixed layer model), an optimized
vertical coordinate scheme and on-line heat budget diagnosis routine.
Advanced Applications of the Monte Carlo Wind Probability
Model: S. Kidder (Colo. Sate Univ.) and M. DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS)
- Develop four new applications and provide four code
modifications to address model limitations.
- The calculation of the probability distributions of the
storm intensity just before landfall and timing of landfall to supplement
the wind probability table information, which provides the intensity
distributions at fixed times
- Creation and evaluation of 5-year database of
incremental probabilities for U.S. landfall storms at coastal breakpoints
- Development of a .line-integral. option that estimates
the probabilities for any portion of a specified set of line segments for
aid in interpretation and issuance of watches and warnings
- Development of an automated method for using the text
probability product to provide guidance on watch/warning locations and
timing.
ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus and Sea Heights
Consistent w/ NHC Forecasts: B. Sampson (Naval Research Lab.)
- Address NHC requirements.
- Evaluate and improve Atlantic and eastern Pacific
intensity consensus.
- Implement WAVEWATCH III analysis and forecast consistent
with advisories
In-Flight Data Processing for the Wind Swath Radar
Altimeter (WSRA) for Real-Time Reporting of Directional Ocean Wave Spectra from
the NOAA WP-3D Hurricane Reconnaissance Aircraft: I. PopStefanjia (ProSensing
Inc.)
- Develop processing algorithms and real-time software to
perform in-flight data processing for newly developed Wide Swath Radar
Altimeter (WSRA.
- Optimize the WSRA digital beamforming and range centroid
tracking algorithms, conversion of the processing algorithms into a
multi-threaded C application, and deployment of a multi-core PC processor
to execute in-flight processing.
- Provide continuous real-time reporting of directional
ocean wave spectra, significant wave height and the radius of 12. seas
from the NOAA P-3 aircraft to the National Hurricane Center through a
satellite data link.
Improvement in the Rapid Intensity Index Incorporation of
Inner Core Information: J. Kaplan, J. Cione, J. Dunion (NOAA/AOML), J. Dostalek
(CIRA/CSU), M. DeMaria, J. Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS) and T. Lee (NRL)
- Improve the operational RII by including predictors
derived from three new sources of inner core.
- Time evolution of inner-core structure as deduced from
GOES IR imagery.
- Microwave-derived total precipitable water
- Inner-core fluxes of heat and moisture obtained from
the sea-surface temperature computed from the SHIPS inner-core sea-surface
temperature cooling algorithm as well as the operational GFS surface
temperature and relative humidity forecast fields.
Improved Real-Time Hurricane Ocean Vector Winds from
QuikSCAT: L. Jones (Univ. Central FL), E. Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML), P. Chang and Z.
Jelenak (NOAA/NESDIS)
- Provide a new QuikSCAT hurricane wind product for forecast
guidance.
- Process, in near real-time, all QuikSCAT hurricane passes
routinely captured by NOAA/NESDIS/ORA using the improved Q-Winds
algorithm.
- Develop appropriate training materials to facilitate
proper operational utilization of new QuikSCAT product.
A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index: Transition to
Operations and Quantification of Associated Intensity Changes: J. Kossin (Univ.
of Wisconsin/CIMSS)
- Implement a new empirical/statistical model that provides
real-time probability estimate forecast of secondary hurricane eyewall
formation.
- Transfer this new model onto the existing SHIPS platform.
- Combine with the Annular Hurricane Index described by
Knaff et al. (2003; 2008) to form a general objective tool that diagnoses
imminent structure changes in hurricanes
Development of a Unified Dropsonde Quality Assurance and
Visualization Capability: M. Black (NOAA/AOML) and C. Martin (NCAR/EOL)
- Development of a single dropsonde QA software package that
includes requirements definition, designing and implementing the software,
testing and evaluation
- Implement final software package along with the
appropriate documentation and training.