Upgrades to the operational GFDL hurricane prediction system: ($90,000 per year)
- Test GFS surface physics package
- Modify downdraft formulation in SAS scheme.
- Improve momentum mixing in SAS scheme.
- Include effect of evaporation in large-scale condensation.
- Modify land-sea mask for consistency between atmospheric and ocean
- Import and test latest version of Lin microphysics.
Improving the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean
model: ($135,700 - year 1; $142,900 - year 2)
- Improve ocean component of the coupled model in the Atlantic basin
(include explicit init of Loop Current using altimeter data).
- Implement ocean coupling in eastern Pacific basin (reduce positive
intensity forecast biases).
- Evaluate and transfer to operations a new high-resolution version of the
coupled model (5 nm spacing inner mesh).
- Test and implement new air-sea flux parameterizations.
Hurricane model transitions to operations at
NCEP/EMC: ($165,000 per year)
- Test GFS shallow convection and surface parameterizations in GFDL model.
- Test bulk microphysics packages.
- Run parallel version with NOAH LSM in 2003 season.
- Test WRF physics packages.
- Test movable nest HWRF.
- Evaluate Hurricane WRF prototype, compare to GFDL w/WRF physics
packages, run the prototype operationally in 2005?
Evaluation of upper ocean mixing parameterizations:
($93,000 - year 1; $96,900 - year 2)
- Use primitive equation ocean model to simulate upper ocean response to
three TCs (Gilbert, Isidore, Lili) using realistic forcing and several
ocean vertical mixing models.
- Compare simulated upper ocean thermal and current structure to data from
AXBTs, conductivity, temperature and depth probes (AXCTDs), and current
- Identify mixing models that produce most realistic simulations; provide
best vertical mixing parameterization to NCEP for use in coupled models.
Real-time dissemination of hurricane wind
fields determined from airborne doppler: ($82,300 - year 1; $100,900 -
- Implement existing Doppler radar wind analysis scheme onboard NOAA recon
- Transmit analysis from aircraft to TPC and into H*Wind.
- Preliminary development and testing of superobs on the aircraft for
eventual assimilation into models.
Targeting strategies to improve hurricane
track forecasts: ($122,600 - year 1; $127,400 - year 2)
- Develop objective strategy: Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF),
used in winter storms, using operational ensemble forecasts.
- Use present subjective targeting method operationally.
- Identify cases in which ETKF selects targets similar to subjective
method; re-run models to simulate ETKF being used operationally to
produce sensitivity maps.
- Refine ETKF software (incl. merge with flight track drawing under
development) and procedures for transition to operations.
- Operationally produce ETKF products that select best feasible flight
Objective and automated assessment of operational
global forecast model predictions of tropical cyclone formation and life
cycle: ($58,200 - year 1; $62,200 - year 2)
- Provide a tool for development of probabilistic measures of guidance
accuracy among global model products related to TC formation and life
- Discriminate between circulations in models that may develop as
predicted and those that are false alarms.
- Automatically and objectively identify and evaluate TC precursor
circulations, and their physical characteristics, in global analysis and
model forecast fields.
- Summarize and catalogue model performance on a circulation for
comparison with future circulations.
- Provide web interface for operational assessment of models relevant to
An updated baseline for track forecast
skill through five days for the Atlantic and Northeastern and Northwestern
Pacific basins: ($19,000)
- Update CLIPER track models.
- Incorporate recent best track data used to derive the models.
- Improve calculation of current storm motion.
Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast
uncertainty and improving extended-range tropical cyclone track forecasts
using an ensemble of dynamical models: ($60,000)
- Apply “CONU” approach to Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins to
potentially include GFDN (FNMOC), COAMPS (FNMOC), and MM5 (AFWA) along
with GUNA components.
- Determine optimum mix of models at different lead times.
- Perform statistical evaluations of consensus forecast errors, stratified
by initial quantities known at time of forecast (e.g., spread, number of
models available to consensus, and TC initial intensity, forward motion,
- Operationally provide tabular and graphical displays of uncertainty in
each consensus forecast.
- Validate uncertainty graphic using cross-validation techniques on
2000-02/3 database on a storm-by-storm basis.
- Provide statistical evaluation software to be used to update uncertainty
database at the end of each season, to incorporate changes to individual
Transition of revised dynamical model track
prediction evaluation expert system (DYMES): ($80,000)
- Create revised DYMES that implements the Atlantic error mechanisms
determined with previous funding.
- Demonstrate operational utility during real-time tests.
Implementation of the Advanced Objective
Dvorak Technique (AODT) and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation (TIE)
algorithms at TPC: ($95,400 - year 1; $99,700 - year 2)
- Implement latest version of AODT in NAWIPS, applicable to all stages of
TC, non-McIDAS, can be automated.
- Implement rudimentary version of TIE model in NAWIPS: fully objective
regression between recon pressure and IR predictors, SST, and latitude
of the TC; additional predictors to be added (e.g., synoptic
environment, microwave imagery).
- Integrate AODT and TIE into single code package.
Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic
Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions: ($95,000 per year)
- Develop and evaluate new component to SHIPS model utilizing recon and
GOES IR data to better determine inner core structure.
- Test neural network prediction method in SHIPS to account for nonlinear
interactions between predictors.
- Provide fields of the probability of surface wind speeds exceeding
specified thresholds over certain time intervals.
Development of a rapid intensification index
for the eastern Pacific basin: ($54,200 - year 1; $64,100 - year 2)
- Develop RI index for the eastern Pacific using methodology similar to
that for existing Atlantic index.
- Output RI probability estimate with each operational eastern Pacific
- Modify existing code and provide training so that it can be used by TPC
to re-derive the eastern Pacific index for future seasons.
Developing an inner-core SST cooling predictor
for use in SHIPS: ($79,500 - year 1; $71,300 - year 2)
- Test algorithm for use in SHIPS that relates the estimated amount of SST
cooling directly under the storm to subsequent TC intensity change.
- Extend algorithm, based on a developmental 23-hurricane sample
(1975-2002) of observations (AXBTs, buoys), to weaker systems (by 2005).
- To run operationally, predict (rather than observe) inner-core SST
cooling using regression with ambient SST and storm
- Improve upon weekly Reynolds SSTs that provide initialization; higher
spatial and temporal resolution.
- Test additional predictors related to subsurface upper ocean parameters.
Improving the validation and prediction of tropical cyclone rainfall: ($120,000 - year 1; $127,500 - year 2)
- Develop new rainfall validation schemes that provide a baseline of
comparison for different forecast systems.
- Provide new forecasting tool, based on the benchmark R-CLIPER, that
incorporates information related to vertical shear and storm track, and
can be run operationally.
- Generate error statistics for rainfall forecasts using traditional and
new validation techniques for the operational GFDL, Eta, and GFS models,
and the R-CLIPER and modified R-CLIPER.