099 AXPZ20 KNHC 062214 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 06 2025 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (EP96): An area of low pressure has become a little better defined about 350 miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This activity consists of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type from 13N to 17N between 105W and 113W. A 1605Z Metop-B Ascat satellite data pass shows the broad fresh to strong winds with the cyclonic circulation consisting of mostly fresh winds, with embedded winds of strong speeds. Seas near this system are 5 to 7 ft, with possible seas reaching 8 ft at times with the strong winds. This system could still become a short- lived tropical depression before it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions on Mon. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the wave from 13N to 16N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 06N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the wave axis near 16N. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on this feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N94W to low pressure near 08N100W 1011 mb and to 10N102W. It resumes from the 1010 mb low near 16N110W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extend from 09N120W to 08N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 99W-102W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 118W-120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of the trough between 95W-102W and from 08N to 12N between 137W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the potential for tropical cyclone development well off the southwest coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open forecast waters W of 105W, reaching fresh speeds off SW Mexico. Seas of 5-7 ft are noted over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are over the waters E of 105W. Over the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds are over the northern section and gentle to moderate winds are over the central and southern sections. Seas are 1-3 ft over the northern section and 3 to 4 ft over the remainder of the Gulf, except for slighter higher seas of 4 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell at the entrance of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually diminish through Mon as an area of low pressure located about 400 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California continues west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are noted over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range, except to the south and southwest of the Galapagos Islands where seas are reaching 7 ft. For the forecast, moderate E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, then begin to pulse at fresh speeds at night and into the early afternoons through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Moderate seas in south to southwest swell will prevail over the regional waters during the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds are found north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the that part of the area, with the exceptions of slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft are confined to over the far western part of the area from 10N to 22N west of about 133W and over a portion of the north-central waters from 21N to 26N between 124W and 130W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into the upcoming week. Latest model guidance indicates these winds will be confined to west of about 128W. Winds and seas over a portion of the waters east of 120W may be subject to changes depending on what transpires with the Special Features area of low pressure as it has potential for tropical cyclone development. Presently, winds east of 120W are mostly light to gentle, with the exception of fresh to strong winds around the Special Features area of low pressure. Seas east of 120W are 5 to 7 ft, maybe reaching to 8 ft at times near the area of low pressure. $$ Aguirre