Experimental Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities

Text Product Description and
Call for Public Feedback

Contents

1. Overview
2. Content of the wind speed probabilities text product
3. Potential advantages as compared to existing products
4. Method for computing the Wind Speed Probabilities

Go to Experimental Graphics Product Description

1. Overview

The Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities text product is part of a suite of experimental probability products that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is testing and evaluating during the 2005 hurricane season. These products are part of a current Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) project involving researchers at NOAA and Colorado State University who developed the underlying techniques. The products themselves have been developed by the Technical Support Branch (TSB) at the NHC.

These experimental products provide probabilities of surface wind speeds of at least 34 kt (39 mph, tropical storm force), 50 kt (58 mph), and 64 kt (74 mph, hurricane force) at several locations along the coastlines of the United States and other countries in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The probabilities are based on errors during recent years in the official track and intensity forecasts issued by the NHC. Variability in tropical cyclone size (wind radii) is also incorporated. The NHC intends to issue, experimentally during 2005, one separate text product with each advisory package for each active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. Each individual text product will contain probabilities for all three wind speed thresholds. NHC expects that these text products will usually be available at about the same time as the existing text products in each advisory package. However, due to the experimental status of these products, they may not always be timely or even available.

The product description document for the probabilistic text product is available at http://products.weather.gov/viewliste.php in PDF format.

Corresponding experimental graphical products will also be produced during 2005. Please visit the following web page for information on these graphical products:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback-pws-graphics.shtml

Next: Content of the wind speed probabilities text product