Experimental Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities

Graphics Product Description and
Call for Public Feedback

Contents

1. Overview
2. Description of the wind speed probabilities graphical products
3. Potential advantages as compared to existing products
4. Method for computing the Wind Speed Probabilities

Go to Experimental Text Product Description

1. Overview

The tropical cyclone surface wind speed probabilities graphical products are part of a suite of experimental probability products that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is testing and evaluating during the 2005 hurricane season. These products are part of a current Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) project involving researchers at NOAA and Colorado State University who developed the underlying techniques. The products themselves have been developed by the Technical Support Branch (TSB) at the NHC.

These experimental graphics provide probabilities of surface wind speeds of at least 34 kt (39 mph, tropical storm force), 50 kt (58 mph), and 64 kt (74 mph, hurricane force) at any point in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins within the 5-day forecast period. The probabilities are based on errors during recent years in the official track and intensity forecasts issued by the NHC. Variability in tropical cyclone size (wind radii) is also incorporated. The NHC intends to produce, experimentally during 2005, a set of updated graphical products with each advisory package for each active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. However, due to the experimental status of these products, they may not always be timely or even available. While the experimental wind speed probability text products are expected to be available at about the same time as the rest of the advisory package of text products, the experimental wind speed probability graphics may take 30 to 60 minutes longer (or more) to update following the issuance of the official forecast.

The product description document for the probabilistic graphical product is available at http://products.weather.gov/viewliste.php in PDF format.

Corresponding experimental text products will also be produced during 2005. Please visit the following web page for information on these text products: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback-pws.shtml

Next: Description of the wind speed probabilities graphical products