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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure, located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico, have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form during the next day or so before it moves over southwestern
Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are expected
to begin spreading inland over southwestern Mexico Wednesday night.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while
it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is located more than 1500 miles
west-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.  Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves little during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts




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