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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization over the
last day in association with a well-defined area of low pressure
located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive, any further development of the
system will lead to the formation of a tropical depression at any
time.  The low is expected to move toward the west-northwest at
5 to 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have also increased during the past day or
so near an area of low pressure centered about 900 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, this system
has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next
day or so before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development.  The low is expected to move slowly to the west or
west-northwest during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in the eastern
Pacific Ocean south of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some development of the system by
the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Landsea




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