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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, has changed little in organization overnight.  However,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the low moves northward at about 5 mph.  Interests along the
southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A small low pressure system is producing a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms that extend about 200 miles offshore the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador.  The low is expected to
move little or drift westward during the next couple of days, and
development appears unlikely due to its proximity to land and
unfavorable upper-level winds.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
development, this system could produce heavy rains across portions
of El Salvador and southern Guatemala during the next few days.
These rains have the potential to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

3. An area of low pressure could form early next week about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Any development of this system later next week should be slow to
occur while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain/Cangialosi




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