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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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