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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly westward.  This
system should move into the Central Pacific basin late Thursday or
Friday and is likely to become a tropical depression later this week
or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by Saturday.
Some gradual development of this system is possible early next week
while the system moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown




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