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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Genevieve, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast
of the Big Island of Hawaii.

1. A low pressure area located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours.  Although upper-level winds
are currently marginally conducive for development, a tropical
depression could still form during the next day or so while the low
moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Another low pressure area located about 450 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of organization.
Conditions appear conducive for additional development until Monday,
when the system is expected to reach colder water.  A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
low moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of southern
Mexico late this weekend.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg




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