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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization
during the past several hours.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is expected by the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend while it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

4. Yet another area of low pressure could form in a few days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.  Some development of this system is possible by the
weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven




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