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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Maria, located over the Atlantic Ocean several hundred
miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Tropical Storm
Lee, located over the north Atlantic Ocean about a 1000 miles
west-northwest of the Azores.

1. A broad trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and
showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward
through the southern Florida peninsula.  Environmental conditions
appear to be marginally conducive for some development and a low
pressure system could form near Florida or over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico before the upper-level winds become unfavorable early next
week.  Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, and the Florida peninsula during the next several days while
the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters.
Although there are no signs of organization and surface pressures
are not falling at this time, conditions could become a little more
favorable for some development next week while the system moves
toward the west-northwest.  This system is expected to bring
locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila




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