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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.  Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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