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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the weak area of low pressure over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico indicate that the system does not have a
well-defined circulation.  The associated thunderstorm activity has
also diminished some since this morning.  However, some limited
development of this system is still possible before it moves inland
over south Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
This system is forecast to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan




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