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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low 
pressure over the central Caribbean have not become any better 
organized today. Nearby dry air is forecast to prevent additional 
significant development of the system as it moves slowly westward 
during the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal 
boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic later today or 
tonight. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward 
across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface 
temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions 
appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical 
characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the 
latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward 
followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Kelly