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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located just off the west coast of 
Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally 
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form east of the 
Florida peninsula late this week.  This system could acquire some 
subtropical characteristics by this weekend while it moves generally 
northward.  Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring 
gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast 
and Mid-Atlantic United States late this week and into this weekend. 
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office 
for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Kelly