000 ABNT30 KNHC 011157 TWSAT MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING JULY WAS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...THREE TROPICAL STORMS FORMING DURING THE MONTH. TWO OF THESE BECAME HURRICANES...AND ONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. ON AVERAGE...ONE TROPICAL STORM FORMS DURING JULY AND A HURRICANE ONLY FORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER JULY. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE... JULY WAS THE THIRD MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD...BEHIND 2005 AND 1916. BERTHA DEVELOPED FROM A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 1 JULY. THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECAME ORGANIZED AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 3 JULY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT TIME LATER WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA'S STRENGTH CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVED QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE ON 6 JULY... BERTHA STRENGTHENED AS IT REACHED WARMER WATERS...AND IT BECAME A HURRICANE EARLY THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 MPH...CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH...BY EARLY ON 8 JULY. LATER THAT DAY...INCREASED SHEAR CAUSED BERTHA TO WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION ON 9 JULY AS THE SHEAR DECREASED. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BERTHA TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON 12-13 JULY...BERTHA STALLED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE NEXT DAY THE CYCLONE BEGAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER PASSING ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER PASSING BERMUDA...BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED SLOWED DOWN AGAIN AND THE STORM TURNED EASTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. BERTHA ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN ON 18 JULY. BERTHA PASSED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON 20 JULY. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ICELAND WHERE IT MERGED WITH A LARGER LOWER PRESSURE AREA. BERTHA BROUGHT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA DURING ITS CLOSE PASSAGE ON THE 14TH. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE EXPERIENCED AT SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ON BERMUDA...HOWEVER ONLY MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. BERTHA'S 17 DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES IT THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD. CRISTOBAL FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 18 JULY ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ON 19 JULY ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE CRISTOBAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE COAST ESCAPED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. CRISTOBAL MOVED AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AND THEN REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 MPH ON 21 JULY ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL THEN MOVED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ON 23 JULY ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX. DOLLY ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED FROM AFRICA ON 11 JULY. THE SYSTEM MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND GENERATED A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 13 JULY. THE LOW MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND CROSSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY ON 17 JULY. AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSED THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IT HAD A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS...BUT NO DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ON 20 JULY...WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHED THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER FORMED AND TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS BORN ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THE STORM MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND TEMPORARILY BECAME DISORGANIZED WHILE ITS CENTER WAS REFORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOLLY REORGANIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 21 JULY AND HEADED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. ON 22 JULY THE CYCLONE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. DOLLY SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 100 MPH ON 23 JULY SHORTLY BEFORE ITS EYE MADE LANDFALL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS...A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD. AFTER LANDFALL THE CYCLONE STEADILY WEAKENED. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 24 JULY AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT CROSSED THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHILE CONTINUING TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS PATH. DOLLY'S SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON 25 JULY BUT ITS REMNANTS ALOFT MOVED OVER NEW MEXICO ON 26-27 JULY WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THE SYSTEM LOST ITS IDENTITY AS IT APPROACHED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY ON 28 JULY. ONE PERSON DROWNED IN ROUGH SURF IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PRELIMINARY DAMAGE TOTALS RANGE FROM 750 MILLION TO 1 BILLION DOLLARS. SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS ------------------------------------------------------------------- MH BERTHA 3 JUL - 20 JUL 120 * TS CRISTOBAL 19 JUL - 23 JUL 65 H DOLLY 20 JUL - 25 JUL 100 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------- MH DENOTES MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC) $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN/BLAKE/BROWN/PASCH