000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031131
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Orlene, which is located near the southwest coast of Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula have become more concentrated 
overnight.  However, the thunderstorms are currently displaced to 
the southwest of the low-level center.  Only a slight increase in 
organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression 
later today or tonight while the system moves slowly 
northward-northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next 
several days.  The low is forecast to move generally 
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn 
northwestward toward the end of the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown