649 
ABPZ20 KNHC 131750
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, 
Mexico has increased some since this morning. Although environmental 
conditions appear marginally favorable, some slight additional 
development is possible during the next day or so before it likely 
merges with the disturbance to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico 
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. 
This system is forecast to merge with the disturbance off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek or possibly develop as a 
separate system.  Environmental conditions are expected to become 
more conducive for development by the middle part of the week.  
Consequently, a tropical depression is likely to form toward the 
end of the week while it moves slowly westward near the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown/Pasch