000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121733
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce an 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of 
its center.  Although environmental conditions are only marginally 
conducive, some additional gradual development is possible during 
the next day or two. The system is forecast to move little through 
midweek, then merge with the disturbance to its east shortly 
thereafter. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico 
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is 
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development 
by that time.  A tropical depression is likely to form during the 
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near 
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 

$$
Forecaster Brown