000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311146
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, 
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by 
this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or 
northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred miles off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern 
coast of Mexico by late this week.  Gradual development of this 
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could 
form by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or 
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch