000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212324
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather is located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico.  Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
showing some signs of organization, the system currently lacks a
closed surface circulation.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form near the southwest coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days as the system drifts west-northwestward.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown